{ "ticker": { "uuid": "369fd724-3736-47f0-b681-daa5661a1fed", "symbol": "UKOG", "name": "UK Oil & Gas PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.656, "architecture_energy": 28.204, "architecture_maturity": 33.239, "architecture_confidence": 63.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.86, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 65.47, "rotation_down": 35.34, "downward_expansion": 64.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.9e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.000102, 0.000109 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0001, "trend_reference": 0.000123, "distance_from_trend": -0.184783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.000672, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.851287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.569264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411765, "excess_performance": -0.463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.851287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05289, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 262414180, "relative_activity": 0.471258, "balance": 0.601138, "dry_up": 0.500819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.510325, "from_high_reference": -0.818182, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000123, "fair_value_reference": 0.000672, "structural_low": 8e-05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079448, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.286922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.388889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.48602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.388889, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2023-07-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.94717, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.488372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.390244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.52381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.30303, "active": false }, { 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425254353, "typical_volume": 649361975.85, "trend": 0.000132, "fair_value": 0.000807, "relative_strength": -34.81641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.65891, "energy": 45.401992, "activity_lines": [ 9.9e-05, 0.000102, 0.000107, 0.000117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9e-05, "volume": 295181563, "typical_volume": 648319137.5, "trend": 0.00013, "fair_value": 0.00077, "relative_strength": -41.703556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.400205, "energy": 45.635589, "activity_lines": [ 9.7e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.000104, 0.000114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0001, "volume": 305765512, "typical_volume": 622039588.35, "trend": 0.000127, "fair_value": 0.000737, "relative_strength": -35.905817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.160089, "energy": 32.889653, "activity_lines": [ 9.8e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.000103, 0.000112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0001, "volume": 252139005, "typical_volume": 572408761.7, "trend": 0.000125, "fair_value": 0.000704, "relative_strength": -36.530336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.060549, "energy": 28.715687, "activity_lines": [ 9.9e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.000102, 0.000111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0001, "volume": 262414180, "typical_volume": 556837767.45, "trend": 0.000123, "fair_value": 0.000672, "relative_strength": -36.569264, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.656183, "energy": 28.204257, "activity_lines": [ 9.9e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.000102, 0.000109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }