{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36a1c474-ec8e-46db-acf2-75b2ba435e97", "symbol": "SUH", "name": "Southern Hemisphere Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.134, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.203, "architecture_energy": 29.082, "architecture_maturity": 31.086, "architecture_confidence": 74.159, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.76, "rotation_up": 55.81, "upward_expansion": 41.02, "deceleration": 34.72, "rotation_down": 21.27, "downward_expansion": 18.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.029533, 0.028491, 0.026276, 0.026316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.027533, "distance_from_trend": 0.234867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.033458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016189, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.47993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030303, "excess_performance": -0.033403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.234867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.376592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004799, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.375207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.633263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2425384, "relative_activity": 1.596437, "balance": 2.633263, "dry_up": 0.756303, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13009, "annualized_volatility": 0.868245, "from_high_reference": -0.358491, "from_low_reference": 1.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027533, "fair_value_reference": 0.033458, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.041674, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.008145, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.107114, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.457143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.114286, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.169027, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.361703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.226671, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228234, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.259259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.266667, 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-1.834028, "energy": 29.028688, "activity_lines": [ 0.027267, 0.0252, 0.024624, 0.026135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.029, "volume": 4618012, "typical_volume": 1537927.3, "trend": 0.028267, "fair_value": 0.033247, "relative_strength": -10.769142, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.275279, "energy": 21.359941, "activity_lines": [ 0.027733, 0.026182, 0.024957, 0.02617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.026, "volume": 286925, "typical_volume": 1446114.45, "trend": 0.028, "fair_value": 0.033266, "relative_strength": -19.526693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.041687, "energy": 10.054507, "activity_lines": [ 0.026867, 0.026473, 0.025014, 0.026024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 979997, "typical_volume": 1464212.65, "trend": 0.0278, "fair_value": 0.033292, "relative_strength": -25.044439, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.106617, "energy": 13.528302, "activity_lines": [ 0.025867, 0.026309, 0.024905, 0.025766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 903738, "typical_volume": 1482444.6, "trend": 0.027667, "fair_value": 0.033362, "relative_strength": -8.38137, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.678455, "energy": 11.380106, "activity_lines": [ 0.0272, 0.027145, 0.0254, 0.025908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 2425384, "typical_volume": 1519247.85, "trend": 0.027533, "fair_value": 0.033458, "relative_strength": 0.47993, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.202737, "energy": 29.082166, "activity_lines": [ 0.029533, 0.028491, 0.026276, 0.026316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }