{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36a30188-e244-4ac8-90de-77180f827002", "symbol": "HHFA", "name": "Hamburger Hafen und Logistik Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.365, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.685, "architecture_energy": 51.721, "architecture_maturity": 24.646, "architecture_confidence": 92.752, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.53, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 45.28, "rotation_down": 53.92, "downward_expansion": 84.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.706667, 21.74, 21.769048, 21.93828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.700001, "trend_reference": 22.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.022229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.561596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169081, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.99762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048246, "excess_performance": -0.222492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008508, "annualized_volatility": 0.064419, "from_high_reference": -0.064655, "from_low_reference": 0.053398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.193333, "fair_value_reference": 18.561596, "structural_low": 21.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.008721, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.651923, "worst_return": -0.110758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054412, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.576923, "worst_return": -0.176976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097676, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.103059, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.609615, "worst_return": -0.205356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-15.818675, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.65532, "energy": 25.38885, "activity_lines": [ 21.800001, 21.783637, 22.05, 22.163871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 21.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.156667, "fair_value": 18.10282, "relative_strength": -19.305122, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.301291, "energy": 28.528398, "activity_lines": [ 21.846667, 21.794546, 22.010477, 22.149033 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.173333, "fair_value": 18.170467, "relative_strength": -17.831752, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.669677, "energy": 25.793268, "activity_lines": [ 21.846667, 21.794546, 21.965715, 22.126022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.19, "fair_value": 18.236972, "relative_strength": -19.451874, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.438436, "energy": 25.073034, "activity_lines": [ 21.839999, 21.801818, 21.925714, 22.101936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.196667, "fair_value": 18.302329, "relative_strength": -18.480326, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.983746, "energy": 38.928414, "activity_lines": [ 21.793333, 21.789091, 21.881905, 22.070323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.206667, "fair_value": 18.367298, "relative_strength": -17.007588, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.024525, "energy": 61.144131, "activity_lines": [ 21.713333, 21.758182, 21.834762, 22.031828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.216667, "fair_value": 18.43266, "relative_strength": -17.078512, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.087127, "energy": 60.31857, "activity_lines": [ 21.726666, 21.765454, 21.813333, 22.005592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.226667, "fair_value": 18.49624, "relative_strength": -16.999238, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.744169, "energy": 55.599131, "activity_lines": [ 21.713333, 21.752727, 21.788572, 21.972258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 22.193333, "fair_value": 18.561596, "relative_strength": -18.99762, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.684587, "energy": 51.721186, "activity_lines": [ 21.706667, 21.74, 21.769048, 21.93828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }