{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36a9b8b5-f723-45c3-b1e9-5148cfb9cd27", "symbol": "9962", "name": "Yeou Yih Steel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.247, "architecture_energy": 9.361, "architecture_maturity": 20.674, "architecture_confidence": 53.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.27, "rotation_up": 30.6, "upward_expansion": 25.97, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 18.61, "downward_expansion": 47.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.004667, 9.92, 9.845429, 10.036 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.25, "trend_reference": 10.395667, "distance_from_trend": -0.014012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.550536, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.689463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108696, "excess_performance": -0.550068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243572, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.834081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504060, "relative_activity": 1.35541, "balance": 1.834081, "dry_up": 0.84773, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038424, "annualized_volatility": 0.14455, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.104526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.395667, "fair_value_reference": 13.550536, "structural_low": 9.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006173, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052452, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.177465, "worst_return": -0.119477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071551, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151515, "worst_return": -0.169697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.126938, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.491468, "worst_return": -0.276833, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.009375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.079693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.078812, "energy": 30.22672, "activity_lines": [ 9.808667, 9.764, 9.901286, 10.196495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.78, "volume": 273035, "typical_volume": 370716.55, "trend": 10.440667, "fair_value": 13.726744, "relative_strength": -34.339868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.389576, "energy": 29.477246, "activity_lines": [ 9.800667, 9.779818, 9.860381, 10.152753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.89, "volume": 307600, "typical_volume": 371402.95, "trend": 10.432, "fair_value": 13.683817, "relative_strength": -34.016495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.96444, "energy": 23.663768, "activity_lines": [ 9.834, 9.809091, 9.838143, 10.117226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.78, "volume": 102050, "typical_volume": 366518.65, "trend": 10.423, "fair_value": 13.63699, "relative_strength": -32.862223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.338804, "energy": 23.569957, "activity_lines": [ 9.824667, 9.811818, 9.813333, 10.075161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.98, "volume": 347331, "typical_volume": 358949.35, "trend": 10.414, "fair_value": 13.592607, "relative_strength": -32.137626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.69462, "energy": 15.832866, "activity_lines": [ 9.875333, 9.844, 9.814095, 10.046581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.25, "volume": 504060, "typical_volume": 371887.5, "trend": 10.395667, "fair_value": 13.550536, "relative_strength": -31.689463, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.247107, "energy": 9.360627, "activity_lines": [ 10.004667, 9.92, 9.845429, 10.036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }