{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36aae923-bf9f-41de-9dc1-352c0d8ea20d", "symbol": "RMCH", "name": "TRM Phys CHF Hedged Gold ETC", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.635, "architecture_energy": 57.432, "architecture_maturity": 70.603, "architecture_confidence": 69.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.79, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 48.72, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.514667, 32.47491, 33.719072, 34.941075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.055, "trend_reference": 36.533833, "distance_from_trend": -0.06785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.775159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.91488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146812, "excess_performance": -0.229695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206162, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3446, "relative_activity": 0.553197, "balance": 0.367319, "dry_up": 1.227194, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032255, "annualized_volatility": 0.242879, "from_high_reference": -0.235835, "from_low_reference": 0.238364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.533833, "fair_value_reference": 30.775159, "structural_low": 31.440001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007551, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00335, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007551, "worst_return": 0.007551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088002, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071417, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 23.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.23, "volume": 26809, "typical_volume": 6426.0, "trend": 37.022666, "fair_value": 30.707919, "relative_strength": -15.048504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.947864, "energy": 90.443272, "activity_lines": [ 32.463334, 33.446454, 35.015928, 36.115064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.440001, "volume": 6833, "typical_volume": 6277.55, "trend": 36.896667, "fair_value": 30.716053, "relative_strength": -17.674005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.053446, "energy": 92.960371, "activity_lines": [ 32.072334, 32.911091, 34.542762, 35.754892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.025002, "volume": 15922, "typical_volume": 6874.7, "trend": 36.749167, "fair_value": 30.730437, "relative_strength": -15.996074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.491668, "energy": 75.252066, "activity_lines": [ 32.006001, 32.592273, 34.175881, 35.440591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.565001, "volume": 4377, "typical_volume": 6351.05, "trend": 36.613333, "fair_value": 30.739509, "relative_strength": -17.241609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.029729, "energy": 68.927908, "activity_lines": [ 31.838001, 32.269455, 33.807786, 35.106129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.055, "volume": 3446, "typical_volume": 6229.25, "trend": 36.533833, "fair_value": 30.775159, "relative_strength": -11.91488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.634988, "energy": 57.431598, "activity_lines": [ 32.514667, 32.47491, 33.719072, 34.941075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }