{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36abdcd3-17d9-4659-b890-0fcccd959880", "symbol": "688396", "name": "China Resources Microelectronics Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.905, "architecture_energy": 26.809, "architecture_maturity": 60.145, "architecture_confidence": 93.24, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.7, "rotation_up": 18.59, "upward_expansion": 45.36, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 48.84, "downward_expansion": 34.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.504666, 66.513702, 65.298316, 62.481485 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 61.209999, "trend_reference": 60.346448, "distance_from_trend": 0.01431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.991971, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.269881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040144, "excess_performance": 0.00306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092699, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040144, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461782, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128217046, "relative_activity": 1.059052, "balance": 1.461782, "dry_up": 1.159697, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176684, "annualized_volatility": 0.652658, "from_high_reference": -0.35296, "from_low_reference": 0.400366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.346448, "fair_value_reference": 48.991971, "structural_low": 43.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067452, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026142, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.071687, "worst_return": -0.143695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023409, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.02777, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.300878, "worst_return": -0.082411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10607, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.062685, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"relative_strength": 16.747008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.527307, "energy": 49.656955, "activity_lines": [ 74.682376, 72.42913, 65.850698, 62.746282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.400002, "volume": 150456921, "typical_volume": 116246939.2, "trend": 60.071448, "fair_value": 48.942146, "relative_strength": 11.849384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.808377, "energy": 24.032023, "activity_lines": [ 69.284, 70.714121, 65.871016, 62.780167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.299999, "volume": 116587290, "typical_volume": 117916425.05, "trend": 60.068115, "fair_value": 48.946028, "relative_strength": -0.021252, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.710455, "energy": 18.067823, "activity_lines": [ 62.728666, 67.912435, 65.266332, 62.407815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.209999, "volume": 128217046, "typical_volume": 121067713.15, "trend": 60.346448, "fair_value": 48.991971, "relative_strength": 9.269881, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.904869, "energy": 26.809169, "activity_lines": [ 60.504666, 66.513702, 65.298316, 62.481485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }