{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36ac4b56-79fe-4a23-94ef-f2f95d7249e9", "symbol": "FINT", "name": "First Trust International Capital Strength ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.931, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.8, "architecture_energy": 26.659, "architecture_maturity": 56.074, "architecture_confidence": 81.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.44, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 58.17, "deceleration": 87.88, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.220667, 37.370518, 37.100582, 36.594035 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.02, "trend_reference": 36.010171, "distance_from_trend": 0.055813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.532533, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.196955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097363, "excess_performance": -0.023058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097363, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945736, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 0.269663, "balance": 0.945736, "dry_up": 0.674157, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024726, "annualized_volatility": 0.20204, "from_high_reference": -0.018585, "from_low_reference": 0.278922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.010171, "fair_value_reference": 28.532533, "structural_low": 32.690273, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034177, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004507, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.08346, "worst_return": -0.036312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011146, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016975, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.140115, "worst_return": -0.028147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018141, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219247, "worst_return": -0.029759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.13168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119098, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024246, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.406355, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 780.0, "trend": 22.95527, "fair_value": 22.55488, "relative_strength": 2.807414, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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37.534011, 36.761723, 36.239425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.549999, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 3025.0, "trend": 35.605138, "fair_value": 28.260486, "relative_strength": -2.202961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.207526, "energy": 36.648512, "activity_lines": [ 37.400661, 37.40267, 36.806391, 36.309283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.490002, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2570.0, "trend": 35.737759, "fair_value": 28.344017, "relative_strength": -2.524924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.98319, "energy": 25.932767, "activity_lines": [ 37.002667, 37.263086, 36.847166, 36.366371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.119999, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 2410.0, "trend": 35.873438, "fair_value": 28.435206, "relative_strength": -0.415034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.40003, "energy": 24.027301, "activity_lines": [ 36.951333, 37.239643, 36.938736, 36.455547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.02, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 2225.0, "trend": 36.010171, "fair_value": 28.532533, "relative_strength": -1.196955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.799691, "energy": 26.659408, "activity_lines": [ 37.220667, 37.370518, 37.100582, 36.594035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }