{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36b356ec-7a66-4a2f-81e0-8f994cbe794b", "symbol": "GOAU", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS US GLOBAL GO GOLD & PRECUS METL MINE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.976, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.626, "architecture_energy": 20.847, "architecture_maturity": 44.055, "architecture_confidence": 60.01, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.3, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 16.75, "deceleration": 62.48, "rotation_down": 36.72, "downward_expansion": 66.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.083, 38.569682, 39.853171, 41.433184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.44, "trend_reference": 43.79282, "distance_from_trend": 0.014778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.307291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.627404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.957825, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056676, "excess_performance": -0.182301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.627404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.015857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119521, "relative_activity": 0.752879, "balance": 1.015857, "dry_up": 0.884524, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089778, "annualized_volatility": 0.574534, "from_high_reference": -0.22158, "from_low_reference": 0.475337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.79282, "fair_value_reference": 27.307291, "structural_low": 34.3428, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008986, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.01894, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.173573, "worst_return": -0.133512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073457, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.052292, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.336089, "worst_return": -0.088214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1389, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.178565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218226, "worst_return": -0.056365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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35.1675, "volume": 130520, "typical_volume": 170170.1, "trend": 44.31367, "fair_value": 26.861279, "relative_strength": -21.413094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.495713, "energy": 64.658107, "activity_lines": [ 37.216767, 38.338815, 40.507037, 42.360936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.98, "volume": 160862, "typical_volume": 163536.2, "trend": 44.029337, "fair_value": 26.992025, "relative_strength": -16.958612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.767956, "energy": 57.954256, "activity_lines": [ 36.8804, 37.905958, 40.016336, 41.887796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.37, "volume": 150777, "typical_volume": 162890.25, "trend": 43.827153, "fair_value": 27.123238, "relative_strength": -19.273882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.610122, "energy": 56.427869, "activity_lines": [ 36.5667, 37.460184, 39.529349, 41.393645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.44, "volume": 119521, "typical_volume": 158752.0, "trend": 43.79282, "fair_value": 27.307291, "relative_strength": -4.957825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.626373, "energy": 20.84676, "activity_lines": [ 39.083, 38.569682, 39.853171, 41.433184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }