{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36b8a740-26e4-4cc7-9851-4e02ba5521e5", "symbol": "SRL", "name": "Scully Royalty Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.49, "architecture_energy": 83.815, "architecture_maturity": 38.081, "architecture_confidence": 92.195, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 22.74, "upward_expansion": 20.52, "deceleration": 37.9, "rotation_down": 62.69, "downward_expansion": 93.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.313, 5.501727, 5.854143, 6.349269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.72, "trend_reference": 7.073167, "distance_from_trend": -0.19131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.719042, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.760348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368653, "excess_performance": -0.494278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148688, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129752, "relative_activity": 1.941991, "balance": 1.119893, "dry_up": 1.863564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059716, "annualized_volatility": 0.387542, "from_high_reference": -0.449465, "from_low_reference": 0.358638 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.073167, "fair_value_reference": 6.719042, "structural_low": 4.2101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012923, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.029365, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.334822, "worst_return": -0.248322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005234, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.041989, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.865566, "worst_return": -0.313794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048658, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056317, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.194305, "worst_return": -0.153249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.147091, 6.543667, 7.005075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.07, "volume": 234793, "typical_volume": 64492.0, "trend": 7.35, "fair_value": 6.749507, "relative_strength": -32.057454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.424882, "energy": 81.819335, "activity_lines": [ 5.773333, 5.937091, 6.352667, 6.855204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 197345, "typical_volume": 70034.15, "trend": 7.289, "fair_value": 6.738346, "relative_strength": -27.526248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.544883, "energy": 76.646489, "activity_lines": [ 5.568667, 5.802364, 6.203429, 6.722946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.035, "volume": 103400, "typical_volume": 68518.8, "trend": 7.220167, "fair_value": 6.730018, "relative_strength": -30.346509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.455918, "energy": 81.203212, "activity_lines": [ 5.330667, 5.638364, 6.046571, 6.577527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.08, "volume": 67551, "typical_volume": 67567.25, "trend": 7.117833, "fair_value": 6.720737, "relative_strength": -30.141308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.943446, "energy": 82.303142, "activity_lines": [ 5.180333, 5.502364, 5.91231, 6.439452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.72, "volume": 129752, "typical_volume": 66813.9, "trend": 7.073167, "fair_value": 6.719042, "relative_strength": -23.760348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.490499, "energy": 83.81462, "activity_lines": [ 5.313, 5.501727, 5.854143, 6.349269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }