{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36b9c8ed-19eb-4ec3-a61b-2a90e3aba676", "symbol": "DB42", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI EM Latin America Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.577, "architecture_energy": 21.314, "architecture_maturity": 11.236, "architecture_confidence": 50.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.58, "rotation_up": 56.14, "upward_expansion": 39.31, "deceleration": 35.33, "rotation_down": 15.29, "downward_expansion": 14.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.386334, 49.886273, 49.815881, 49.94458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.16, "trend_reference": 49.975667, "distance_from_trend": 0.003688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.099872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.623595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007126, "excess_performance": -0.181373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026845, "annualized_volatility": 0.191692, "from_high_reference": -0.079295, "from_low_reference": 0.324881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.975667, "fair_value_reference": 40.099872, "structural_low": 46.465, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078906, "worst_return": -0.002816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.082507, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117722, "worst_return": -0.006055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.110955, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110955, "worst_return": 0.110955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.137145, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137145, "worst_return": 0.137145, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029103, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.053725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046166, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.213148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014255, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 37.535, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 36.6, "trend": 36.905833, "fair_value": 35.115962, "relative_strength": 2.017791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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0.385553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.493643, "energy": 44.894399, "activity_lines": [ 51.947333, 51.494727, 50.732143, 49.366086 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 48.689999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 335.2, "trend": 47.604833, "fair_value": 39.321635, "relative_strength": -4.417184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.177797, "energy": 17.122464, "activity_lines": [ 50.696666, 51.118, 50.647143, 49.454409 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 49.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 335.2, "trend": 47.876333, "fair_value": 39.394583, "relative_strength": -5.29197, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.124478, "energy": 19.321977, "activity_lines": [ 49.962666, 50.835454, 50.585881, 49.557323 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 48.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 335.2, 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"close": 48.744999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 272.5, "trend": 48.634333, "fair_value": 39.63782, "relative_strength": -13.320625, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.915545, "energy": 30.388352, "activity_lines": [ 48.617999, 49.202636, 49.934166, 49.648634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 48.424999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 237.95, "trend": 48.778833, "fair_value": 39.694263, "relative_strength": -12.052651, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.141663, "energy": 37.089617, "activity_lines": [ 48.540666, 48.910908, 49.763095, 49.635129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.189999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 192.75, "trend": 48.955, "fair_value": 39.754167, "relative_strength": -12.570784, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.3751, "energy": 16.249985, "activity_lines": [ 48.769999, 48.851272, 49.674857, 49.661655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.965, "volume": 444, "typical_volume": 169.75, "trend": 49.1565, "fair_value": 39.825096, "relative_strength": -9.988457, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.660328, "energy": 7.354308, "activity_lines": [ 49.234999, 48.988545, 49.666999, 49.726817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.455002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.75, "trend": 49.355333, "fair_value": 39.888814, "relative_strength": -9.143008, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.826113, "energy": 7.989391, "activity_lines": [ 49.353334, 49.054091, 49.620404, 49.746075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.75, "trend": 49.5955, "fair_value": 39.952949, "relative_strength": -8.163768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.341062, "energy": 18.925049, "activity_lines": [ 49.861334, 49.377545, 49.701214, 49.831537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.75, "trend": 49.832333, "fair_value": 40.027115, "relative_strength": -7.510237, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.162628, "energy": 26.335297, "activity_lines": [ 50.353667, 49.726636, 49.805309, 49.923441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 151.75, "trend": 49.975667, "fair_value": 40.099872, "relative_strength": -11.623595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.57702, "energy": 21.314372, "activity_lines": [ 50.386334, 49.886273, 49.815881, 49.94458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }