{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36bee163-00df-44b4-a0f0-bb7516da9d6e", "symbol": "601200", "name": "Shanghai Environment Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.708, "architecture_energy": 42.96, "architecture_maturity": 87.793, "architecture_confidence": 90.967, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.11, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 37.74, "downward_expansion": 67.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.949278, 6.898574, 7.195927, 7.496102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.98, "trend_reference": 7.841977, "distance_from_trend": -0.109918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.78041, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.107126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18648, "excess_performance": -0.143276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42812818, "relative_activity": 1.042133, "balance": 0.312096, "dry_up": 1.16161, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049733, "annualized_volatility": 0.254908, "from_high_reference": -0.238822, "from_low_reference": 0.078045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.841977, "fair_value_reference": 7.78041, "structural_low": 6.474684, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01368, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.007865, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.047404, "worst_return": -0.086788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005773, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020653, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140625, "worst_return": -0.084763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035203, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042274, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.195009, "worst_return": -0.142874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 49445833.65, "trend": 7.988133, "fair_value": 7.802217, "relative_strength": -18.338627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.104217, "energy": 90.461012, "activity_lines": [ 6.753477, 7.04622, 7.492771, 7.750864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.867088, "volume": 48104479, "typical_volume": 49206078.6, "trend": 7.949369, "fair_value": 7.797342, "relative_strength": -10.73635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.098517, "energy": 87.35649, "activity_lines": [ 6.760907, 6.965254, 7.397618, 7.678539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.808228, "volume": 50452491, "typical_volume": 46819217.0, "trend": 7.908977, "fair_value": 7.790699, "relative_strength": -12.239447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.739893, "energy": 65.773839, "activity_lines": [ 6.772911, 6.896731, 7.305682, 7.604917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 49514861, "typical_volume": 43227644.5, "trend": 7.877643, "fair_value": 7.785952, "relative_strength": -8.271087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.544619, "energy": 52.842382, "activity_lines": [ 6.904958, 6.904925, 7.253066, 7.554015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.98, "volume": 42812818, "typical_volume": 41081931.6, "trend": 7.841977, "fair_value": 7.78041, "relative_strength": -12.107126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.70834, "energy": 42.959601, "activity_lines": [ 6.949278, 6.898574, 7.195927, 7.496102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }