{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36c0b152-e616-4665-8b34-2994a00ed79f", "symbol": "688586", "name": "Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.747, "architecture_energy": 75.754, "architecture_maturity": 27.795, "architecture_confidence": 90.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.05, "rotation_up": 12.55, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 38.73, "rotation_down": 70.58, "downward_expansion": 90.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.396, 10.826727, 11.778911, 12.435402 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 13.307421, "distance_from_trend": -0.19744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.826561, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.449904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226918, "excess_performance": -0.183714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013537, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29083819, "relative_activity": 0.900378, "balance": 0.427632, "dry_up": 1.065772, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103572, "annualized_volatility": 0.424552, "from_high_reference": -0.411147, "from_low_reference": 0.10559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.307421, "fair_value_reference": 10.826561, "structural_low": 9.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.024323, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.009501, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.265807, "worst_return": -0.223333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019125, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030207, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.171617, "worst_return": -0.163428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07591, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000157, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.35743, "worst_return": -0.227569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 40644149, "typical_volume": 38980974.75, "trend": 13.608716, "fair_value": 10.895834, "relative_strength": -13.478968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.832157, "energy": 75.388675, "activity_lines": [ 11.595333, 12.160982, 12.804028, 13.274605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.97, "volume": 35641705, "typical_volume": 37949707.75, "trend": 13.541777, "fair_value": 10.872766, "relative_strength": -17.265111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.233384, "energy": 85.32751, "activity_lines": [ 10.992, 11.666545, 12.483793, 13.039849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.86, "volume": 43584324, "typical_volume": 35803505.0, "trend": 13.461854, "fair_value": 10.85237, "relative_strength": -18.963245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.462687, "energy": 86.481189, "activity_lines": [ 10.495333, 11.230364, 12.18161, 12.802315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.48, "volume": 29395563, "typical_volume": 34497503.45, "trend": 13.385297, "fair_value": 10.836699, "relative_strength": -14.054213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.469832, "energy": 80.06174, "activity_lines": [ 10.384667, 10.979636, 11.962963, 12.609938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 29083819, "typical_volume": 32301787.8, "trend": 13.307421, "fair_value": 10.826561, "relative_strength": -14.449904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.7468, "energy": 75.75397, "activity_lines": [ 10.396, 10.826727, 11.778911, 12.435402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }