{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36c504b4-5726-4473-b632-806b99b61722", "symbol": "CDI", "name": "CDL Investments New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.321, "architecture_energy": 83.698, "architecture_maturity": 70.133, "architecture_confidence": 81.981, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 77.24, "downward_expansion": 93.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.645, 0.665636, 0.674842, 0.685164 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.703965, "distance_from_trend": -0.076659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.723987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.893386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143053, "excess_performance": -0.171327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7212, "relative_activity": 0.04747, "balance": 0.929801, "dry_up": 0.369942, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032544, "annualized_volatility": 0.255686, "from_high_reference": -0.219114, "from_low_reference": 0.048387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.703965, "fair_value_reference": 0.723987, "structural_low": 0.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004505, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012172, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.126984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016935, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.142856, "worst_return": -0.121795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00095, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.099999, "worst_return": -0.164021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080537, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012659, 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"typical_volume": 154099.25, "trend": 0.712684, "fair_value": 0.724462, "relative_strength": -16.742215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.292185, "energy": 76.363886, "activity_lines": [ 0.663667, 0.681909, 0.682718, 0.693933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.635, "volume": 38966, "typical_volume": 152216.65, "trend": 0.708239, "fair_value": 0.72409, "relative_strength": -16.527281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.64259, "energy": 85.713575, "activity_lines": [ 0.649333, 0.672091, 0.677783, 0.688921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 7212, "typical_volume": 151926.4, "trend": 0.703965, "fair_value": 0.723987, "relative_strength": -14.893386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.320668, "energy": 83.697807, "activity_lines": [ 0.645, 0.665636, 0.674842, 0.685164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }