{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36c5fb53-6816-45cc-83ab-2ec638df7c94", "symbol": "500", "name": "Tai Sin Electric Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.555, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.897, "architecture_energy": 22.6, "architecture_maturity": 25.522, "architecture_confidence": 63.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.82, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 11.11, "deceleration": 52.46, "rotation_down": 51.56, "downward_expansion": 50.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.530667, 0.532273, 0.539381, 0.539874 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.538199, "distance_from_trend": -0.015235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.428942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.264946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108775, "excess_performance": -0.04606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034138, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 155600, "relative_activity": 0.257921, "balance": 0.420224, "dry_up": 0.432258, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034107, "annualized_volatility": 0.216253, "from_high_reference": -0.199999, "from_low_reference": 0.169036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.538199, "fair_value_reference": 0.428942, "structural_low": 0.473077, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.00031, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.03896, "worst_return": -0.052174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019353, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.005897, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04113, "worst_return": -0.078261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040611, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.08513, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095215, "worst_return": -0.006453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05444, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.032566, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075331, "worst_return": 0.03355, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.046749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", 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4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.787041, "energy": 29.142624, "activity_lines": [ 0.535, 0.536091, 0.543534, 0.5422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.535, "volume": 257500, "typical_volume": 662585.0, "trend": 0.541963, "fair_value": 0.426476, "relative_strength": -17.795253, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.436514, "energy": 18.251461, "activity_lines": [ 0.535333, 0.535455, 0.542678, 0.541608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.525, "volume": 276200, "typical_volume": 646860.0, "trend": 0.539916, "fair_value": 0.427706, "relative_strength": -19.457095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.348384, "energy": 19.360442, "activity_lines": [ 0.531667, 0.533182, 0.54081, 0.540514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 155600, "typical_volume": 603285.0, "trend": 0.538199, "fair_value": 0.428942, "relative_strength": -19.264946, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.897391, "energy": 22.599958, "activity_lines": [ 0.530667, 0.532273, 0.539381, 0.539874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }