{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36c723e7-dbec-4690-a4a9-8d832bca860d", "symbol": "200488", "name": "Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.242, "architecture_energy": 55.191, "architecture_maturity": 59.084, "architecture_confidence": 91.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.94, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 10.2, "deceleration": 58.78, "rotation_down": 44.89, "downward_expansion": 78.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.557333, 0.557818, 0.613619, 0.666688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.58, "trend_reference": 0.714, "distance_from_trend": -0.187675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.047179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.446131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.304868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183099, "excess_performance": -0.190498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.446131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2432616, "relative_activity": 0.438128, "balance": 0.32931, "dry_up": 0.828683, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100796, "annualized_volatility": 0.475785, "from_high_reference": -0.402062, "from_low_reference": 0.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.714, "fair_value_reference": 1.047179, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.014006, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.577778, "median_excess_return": -0.01452, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.314815, "worst_return": -0.289157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.053048, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.411765, "worst_return": -0.472222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.185029, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.111146, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.485437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.568, 0.590182, 0.680857, 0.712946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.51, "volume": 7116439, "typical_volume": 8187010.25, "trend": 0.729333, "fair_value": 1.072885, "relative_strength": -28.230413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.481641, "energy": 68.640631, "activity_lines": [ 0.548, 0.569818, 0.658381, 0.698473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.54, "volume": 4351408, "typical_volume": 7672954.85, "trend": 0.724333, "fair_value": 1.064167, "relative_strength": -24.222632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.698713, "energy": 61.950713, "activity_lines": [ 0.544, 0.559636, 0.640095, 0.686258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.56, "volume": 4503904, "typical_volume": 6510608.1, "trend": 0.719, "fair_value": 1.055449, "relative_strength": -20.178482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.102709, "energy": 57.649535, "activity_lines": [ 0.548667, 0.555818, 0.625143, 0.675656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.58, "volume": 2432616, "typical_volume": 5552295.35, "trend": 0.714, "fair_value": 1.047179, "relative_strength": -21.304868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.242379, "energy": 55.191145, "activity_lines": [ 0.557333, 0.557818, 0.613619, 0.666688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }