{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36cfb9f8-7fb6-4149-8f35-60bbd266ee38", "symbol": "OTEX", "name": "Open Text Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.414, "architecture_energy": 41.736, "architecture_maturity": 14.961, "architecture_confidence": 47.124, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.85, "rotation_up": 61.79, "upward_expansion": 57.6, "deceleration": 23.63, "rotation_down": 21.23, "downward_expansion": 18.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.888001, 32.999637, 32.324899, 32.192502 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.740002, "trend_reference": 32.711619, "distance_from_trend": 0.062008, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.031533, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.864188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024937, "excess_performance": -0.095484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024937, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518845, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7900400, "relative_activity": 1.171975, "balance": 1.518845, "dry_up": 0.821097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079247, "annualized_volatility": 0.388936, "from_high_reference": -0.367808, "from_low_reference": 0.272113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.711619, "fair_value_reference": 41.031533, "structural_low": 27.308896, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004872, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020691, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.134944, "worst_return": -0.206949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025652, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.070941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266906, "worst_return": -0.25843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09361, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.175009, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.237402, "worst_return": -0.165158, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083535, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.072858, "energy": 9.80264, "activity_lines": [ 32.236667, 31.875851, 31.62112, 32.082247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.559999, "volume": 5583700, "typical_volume": 7217200.0, "trend": 33.311248, "fair_value": 41.168634, "relative_strength": -28.046364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.24413, "energy": 11.551953, "activity_lines": [ 32.178666, 31.847296, 31.624633, 31.940179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.540001, "volume": 4153200, "typical_volume": 7046865.0, "trend": 33.057745, "fair_value": 41.10806, "relative_strength": -18.13407, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.078434, "energy": 31.041737, "activity_lines": [ 33.308, 32.527983, 32.022433, 32.083969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.740002, "volume": 7900400, "typical_volume": 6741100.0, "trend": 32.711619, "fair_value": 41.031533, "relative_strength": -21.864188, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.413606, "energy": 41.735812, "activity_lines": [ 33.888001, 32.999637, 32.324899, 32.192502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }