{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36d0bc98-7d0d-431d-b345-c7ded6146321", "symbol": "LTL", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA COMMUNICATION SERVICES", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.864, "architecture_energy": 37.336, "architecture_maturity": 33.673, "architecture_confidence": 83.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.14, "rotation_up": 21.02, "upward_expansion": 4.6, "deceleration": 57.27, "rotation_down": 45.9, "downward_expansion": 73.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.515693, 23.599695, 24.506651, 25.041061 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.249, "trend_reference": 25.794612, "distance_from_trend": -0.05992, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.263719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.299657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105903, "excess_performance": -0.231528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05992, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36213, "relative_activity": 1.524203, "balance": 0.570043, "dry_up": 1.23353, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074582, "annualized_volatility": 0.353263, "from_high_reference": -0.176637, "from_low_reference": 0.110299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.794612, "fair_value_reference": 20.263719, "structural_low": 21.840068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020479, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.004452, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.130721, "worst_return": -0.199297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058597, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.064468, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.202004, "worst_return": -0.14718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112785, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099366, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.289693, "worst_return": -0.217649, "sufficient": 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24.588011, 25.399999, 25.879911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.6403, "volume": 24360, "typical_volume": 34071.55, "trend": 26.413387, "fair_value": 19.946351, "relative_strength": -16.126139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.350391, "energy": 66.444488, "activity_lines": [ 23.852288, 24.452299, 25.279887, 25.759153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.2122, "volume": 27847, "typical_volume": 34118.7, "trend": 26.301825, "fair_value": 20.033978, "relative_strength": -16.069371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.071996, "energy": 49.888729, "activity_lines": [ 23.973927, 24.286347, 25.132563, 25.617141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.1663, "volume": 41176, "typical_volume": 28218.1, "trend": 26.093042, "fair_value": 20.101807, "relative_strength": -22.392145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.18698, "energy": 48.74144, "activity_lines": [ 23.443507, 23.803466, 24.808774, 25.350333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.9817, "volume": 11992, "typical_volume": 22869.6, "trend": 25.93137, "fair_value": 20.178648, "relative_strength": -20.119861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.213937, "energy": 42.867802, "activity_lines": [ 23.288887, 23.553531, 24.589351, 25.149601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.249, "volume": 36213, "typical_volume": 23758.65, "trend": 25.794612, "fair_value": 20.263719, "relative_strength": -18.299657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.863631, "energy": 37.336403, "activity_lines": [ 23.515693, 23.599695, 24.506651, 25.041061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }