{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36d639f4-4905-4663-9571-2c86e7cc0488", "symbol": "3114", "name": "Howteh Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.307, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.092, "architecture_energy": 19.832, "architecture_maturity": 66.084, "architecture_confidence": 75.195, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.34, "rotation_up": 19.02, "upward_expansion": 53.44, "deceleration": 91.02, "rotation_down": 46.73, "downward_expansion": 26.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.076666, 37.0, 36.630714, 34.344839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.5, "trend_reference": 31.498333, "distance_from_trend": 0.063548, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.942958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.441869, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.306043, "excess_performance": -0.135329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063548, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196791, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115916, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4183118, "relative_activity": 0.805146, "balance": 1.264795, "dry_up": 0.890524, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226406, "annualized_volatility": 0.818765, "from_high_reference": -0.42735, "from_low_reference": 0.419492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.498333, "fair_value_reference": 25.942958, "structural_low": 24.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016729, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016034, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.161654, "worst_return": -0.091589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039855, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.027221, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.168224, "worst_return": -0.035714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047793, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.152357, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072106, "worst_return": -0.023098, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 49.408734, "energy": 43.666022, "activity_lines": [ 41.48, 41.600909, 36.464524, 33.605054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 2229395, "typical_volume": 4442617.25, "trend": 30.646667, "fair_value": 25.756484, "relative_strength": -16.125738, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.026642, "energy": 23.770148, "activity_lines": [ 37.346666, 40.234545, 36.377143, 33.694624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.5, "volume": 2789108, "typical_volume": 4560410.45, "trend": 30.836667, "fair_value": 25.795744, "relative_strength": -18.010527, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.058247, "energy": 26.237405, "activity_lines": [ 33.843333, 38.544545, 36.136429, 33.685161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.799999, "volume": 9305166, "typical_volume": 4997986.15, "trend": 31.238333, "fair_value": 25.883646, "relative_strength": 2.01193, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.314485, "energy": 26.869454, "activity_lines": [ 34.539999, 38.322727, 36.665476, 34.198925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.5, "volume": 4183118, "typical_volume": 5195476.2, "trend": 31.498333, "fair_value": 25.942958, "relative_strength": -14.441869, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.091918, "energy": 19.832467, "activity_lines": [ 34.076666, 37.0, 36.630714, 34.344839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }