{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36d7bf2f-4663-4b3a-8424-7e7571d94394", "symbol": "SBB-D", "name": "Samh\u00e4llsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.841, "architecture_energy": 73.079, "architecture_maturity": 53.506, "architecture_confidence": 93.896, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 17.73, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 41.01, "rotation_down": 65.48, "downward_expansion": 89.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.126, 6.328909, 6.762738, 7.233591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.19, "trend_reference": 7.924, "distance_from_trend": -0.218829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.469969, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.881713, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.38408, "excess_performance": -0.445574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.38408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846661, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1513211, "relative_activity": 0.970382, "balance": 0.846661, "dry_up": 1.05116, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090096, "annualized_volatility": 0.378473, "from_high_reference": -0.453663, "from_low_reference": 0.063574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.924, "fair_value_reference": 6.469969, "structural_low": 5.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.014789, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.022357, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.33867, "worst_return": -0.61053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.095053, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.056346, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.502622, "worst_return": -0.696107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090004, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.124166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.40851, "worst_return": -0.715462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.03, "volume": 2018155, "typical_volume": 1671892.25, "trend": 8.174667, "fair_value": 6.392145, "relative_strength": -33.886468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.54741, "energy": 62.689052, "activity_lines": [ 6.513333, 6.682909, 7.155762, 7.623591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.89, "volume": 1838683, "typical_volume": 1648609.55, "trend": 8.084833, "fair_value": 6.416515, "relative_strength": -35.960185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.550379, "energy": 64.480204, "activity_lines": [ 6.279333, 6.508364, 6.993571, 7.476194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.14, "volume": 1186651, "typical_volume": 1578116.1, "trend": 8.0055, "fair_value": 6.44343, "relative_strength": -33.673542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.088737, "energy": 63.779861, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 6.398364, 6.869071, 7.35072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.19, "volume": 1513211, "typical_volume": 1559396.55, "trend": 7.924, "fair_value": 6.469969, "relative_strength": -33.881713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.840795, "energy": 73.07866, "activity_lines": [ 6.126, 6.328909, 6.762738, 7.233591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }