{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "36dbeab4-21f4-47a8-8568-061abdc31f54",
    "symbol": "FRE",
    "name": "Frendy Energy S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -48.602,
    "architecture_energy": 44.835,
    "architecture_maturity": 87.882,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.154,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.27,
        "rotation_up": 27.27,
        "upward_expansion": 19.52,
        "deceleration": 66.78,
        "rotation_down": 39.96,
        "downward_expansion": 67.18
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.187533,
        0.187036,
        0.191667,
        0.197209
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.188,
    "trend_reference": 0.204333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.079935,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.207788,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095234,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -23.585427,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.121495,
    "excess_performance": -0.292387,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079935,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039637,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095234,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049758,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.235854,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.042293,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121495,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.655172,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3240,
      "relative_activity": 0.084388,
      "balance": 0.655172,
      "dry_up": 0.527426,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032733,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.147945,
      "from_high_reference": -0.271318,
      "from_low_reference": 0.05618
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.204333,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.207788,
      "structural_low": 0.178,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": -0.010638,
        "positive_rate": 0.424242,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.575758,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007301,
        "regime_survival": 0.787879,
        "best_return": 0.190476,
        "worst_return": -0.110345,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043087,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.206522,
        "worst_return": -0.192593,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.008333,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061671,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.14433,
        "worst_return": -0.215686,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.092121,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.15625,
        "worst_return": -0.277108,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "end": "2025-02-21",
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        "return": 0.0625,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 96498.0,
        "trend": 0.2137,
        "fair_value": 0.208583,
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        "energy": 65.862559,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 90342.0,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 0.211967,
        "fair_value": 0.208571,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -82.945492,
        "energy": 77.663305,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 66366.0,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 0.209433,
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        "relative_strength": -23.70135,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.373272,
        "energy": 90.997353,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 0.208231,
        "relative_strength": -27.95983,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -89.73807,
        "energy": 94.865881,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 49680,
        "typical_volume": 49086.0,
        "trend": 0.207367,
        "fair_value": 0.208109,
        "relative_strength": -25.410652,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.439935,
        "energy": 81.483199,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.185733,
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          0.197024,
          0.202092
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.185,
        "volume": 33480,
        "typical_volume": 46278.0,
        "trend": 0.206467,
        "fair_value": 0.207974,
        "relative_strength": -23.754464,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.156388,
        "energy": 69.766547,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.185,
          0.188218,
          0.195248,
          0.200649
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.186,
        "volume": 24840,
        "typical_volume": 40284.0,
        "trend": 0.205733,
        "fair_value": 0.207891,
        "relative_strength": -22.647793,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.075347,
        "energy": 63.431943,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.185,
          0.187145,
          0.193705,
          0.199329
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.19,
        "volume": 19440,
        "typical_volume": 38502.0,
        "trend": 0.205133,
        "fair_value": 0.207865,
        "relative_strength": -20.967965,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.150968,
        "energy": 54.455416,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.186667,
          0.187164,
          0.192695,
          0.198314
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.188,
        "volume": 3240,
        "typical_volume": 38394.0,
        "trend": 0.204333,
        "fair_value": 0.207788,
        "relative_strength": -23.585427,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.601861,
        "energy": 44.835173,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.187533,
          0.187036,
          0.191667,
          0.197209
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}