{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36e54967-825e-4a96-8f4c-88f233462575", "symbol": "UINF", "name": "Amundi Euro Inflation Expectations 2-10Y UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.969, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.195, "architecture_energy": 63.687, "architecture_maturity": 4.788, "architecture_confidence": 71.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.38, "rotation_up": 67.54, "upward_expansion": 86.76, "deceleration": 46.09, "rotation_down": 11.69, "downward_expansion": 13.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.656998, 120.363817, 120.229046, 119.893451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 120.419998, "trend_reference": 119.245999, "distance_from_trend": 0.009845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 116.954359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.789835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029099, "excess_performance": -0.035541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010003, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.207911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2868, "relative_activity": 0.912156, "balance": 1.207911, "dry_up": 1.988105, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006267, "annualized_volatility": 0.035686, "from_high_reference": -0.008644, "from_low_reference": 0.037165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.245999, "fair_value_reference": 116.954359, "structural_low": 116.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.002163, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.009767, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.069454, "worst_return": -0.055581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011463, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.022985, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.087411, "worst_return": -0.117233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020422, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.010359, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.135208, 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19.538951, "activity_lines": [ 119.625332, 119.89318, 119.818047, 119.317827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.144997, "volume": 2982, "typical_volume": 2490.15, "trend": 118.696833, "fair_value": 116.703013, "relative_strength": -1.466907, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.317637, "energy": 20.259377, "activity_lines": [ 119.757665, 119.900453, 119.885618, 119.418193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.900002, "volume": 5854, "typical_volume": 2744.9, "trend": 118.838999, "fair_value": 116.773686, "relative_strength": 0.063273, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.806987, "energy": 35.254047, "activity_lines": [ 120.146333, 120.051363, 120.009499, 119.560333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.949997, "volume": 7588, "typical_volume": 3087.0, "trend": 118.985333, "fair_value": 116.83734, "relative_strength": -0.96944, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.713354, "energy": 54.34989, "activity_lines": [ 120.492999, 120.199362, 120.119308, 119.696526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.739998, "volume": 8694, "typical_volume": 3306.45, "trend": 119.122333, "fair_value": 116.900449, "relative_strength": -3.088157, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.059204, "energy": 64.13496, "activity_lines": [ 120.677999, 120.30918, 120.192594, 119.80973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.419998, "volume": 2868, "typical_volume": 3144.2, "trend": 119.245999, "fair_value": 116.954359, "relative_strength": -5.789835, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.194836, "energy": 63.686565, "activity_lines": [ 120.656998, 120.363817, 120.229046, 119.893451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }