{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36ed5400-b4da-4150-8d79-c6ce70facb85", "symbol": "HZO", "name": "MarineMax Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.188, "architecture_energy": 32.113, "architecture_maturity": 61.43, "architecture_confidence": 61.459, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.04, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 72.52, "deceleration": 70.7, "rotation_down": 25.58, "downward_expansion": 3.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.244667, 35.176727, 34.304095, 32.845226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.68, "trend_reference": 31.175, "distance_from_trend": 0.144507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.083397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.443877, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190127, "excess_performance": 0.064502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127622, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114439, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190127, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1482521, "relative_activity": 0.971538, "balance": 1.306274, "dry_up": 1.009705, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095141, "annualized_volatility": 0.434427, "from_high_reference": -0.064499, "from_low_reference": 0.665733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.175, "fair_value_reference": 29.083397, "structural_low": 24.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046125, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.051684, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.160377, "worst_return": -0.192389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090774, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.146281, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161388, "worst_return": -0.296315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.160492, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.15487, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.015117, "worst_return": -0.301903, "sufficient": false }, { 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38.737989, "activity_lines": [ 34.927333, 34.772727, 33.250857, 31.888194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.33, "volume": 1998381, "typical_volume": 1592128.65, "trend": 30.565, "fair_value": 29.100449, "relative_strength": 19.88089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.325535, "energy": 36.201706, "activity_lines": [ 35.300667, 35.096909, 33.726048, 32.285634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.47, "volume": 1448192, "typical_volume": 1583240.45, "trend": 30.911333, "fair_value": 29.083013, "relative_strength": 11.990417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.44163, "energy": 26.245067, "activity_lines": [ 34.962, 35.022727, 33.979, 32.53757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.68, "volume": 1482521, "typical_volume": 1525952.5, "trend": 31.175, "fair_value": 29.083397, "relative_strength": 11.443877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.188147, "energy": 32.112948, "activity_lines": [ 35.244667, 35.176727, 34.304095, 32.845226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }