{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36f42c2f-1d8c-4b2b-92b4-62c8907921b4", "symbol": "ARVN", "name": "Arvinas Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.047, "architecture_energy": 34.043, "architecture_maturity": 76.115, "architecture_confidence": 85.687, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.31, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 45.8, "rotation_down": 38.11, "downward_expansion": 66.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.283333, 8.168, 8.520381, 9.211871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.75, "trend_reference": 10.223667, "distance_from_trend": -0.144143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.247981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.545407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.906351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.35089, "excess_performance": -0.538344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.545407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.749381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9119282, "relative_activity": 2.224983, "balance": 1.749381, "dry_up": 1.096759, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104277, "annualized_volatility": 0.503857, "from_high_reference": -0.396968, "from_low_reference": 0.384494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.223667, "fair_value_reference": 19.247981, "structural_low": 6.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010746, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.026171, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.744068, "worst_return": -0.539596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.198209, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.246958, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 1.299287, "worst_return": -0.526515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.267248, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.197357, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.569892, "worst_return": -0.597403, "sufficient": true }, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.01, "volume": 2941277, "typical_volume": 4043561.75, "trend": 10.586667, "fair_value": 19.546378, "relative_strength": -28.758173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.747045, "energy": 44.28502, "activity_lines": [ 8.131333, 8.099091, 8.842429, 9.635097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.03, "volume": 2914190, "typical_volume": 3986715.5, "trend": 10.449, "fair_value": 19.454135, "relative_strength": -27.234947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.024458, "energy": 40.818523, "activity_lines": [ 8.118667, 8.059273, 8.687952, 9.470151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.03, "volume": 3005897, "typical_volume": 3973158.6, "trend": 10.334333, "fair_value": 19.351635, "relative_strength": -27.479215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.064961, "energy": 42.181064, "activity_lines": [ 8.082, 8.038545, 8.56, 9.314086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.75, "volume": 9119282, "typical_volume": 4098585.35, "trend": 10.223667, "fair_value": 19.247981, "relative_strength": -24.906351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.047214, "energy": 34.043134, "activity_lines": [ 8.283333, 8.168, 8.520381, 9.211871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }