{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36faaf63-ef1b-487e-95ff-2effb593e8cc", "symbol": "002391", "name": "Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.464, "architecture_energy": 40.727, "architecture_maturity": 63.043, "architecture_confidence": 66.289, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.82, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 65.35, "rotation_down": 41.62, "downward_expansion": 68.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.169333, 5.14602, 5.359078, 5.58613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.24, "trend_reference": 5.85408, "distance_from_trend": -0.104898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.580399, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.423753, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19755, "excess_performance": -0.20495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.133464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34980924, "relative_activity": 0.99048, "balance": 0.133464, "dry_up": 1.060295, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059197, "annualized_volatility": 0.314047, "from_high_reference": -0.267133, "from_low_reference": 0.069388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.85408, "fair_value_reference": 5.580399, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00719, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.008489, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.100228, "worst_return": -0.114437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005823, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051705, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.137877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111724, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.081206, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.168155, "worst_return": -0.253775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 5.900414, "fair_value": 5.600893, "relative_strength": -17.185173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.84458, "energy": 57.146503, "activity_lines": [ 5.079333, 5.126276, 5.439434, 5.669194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.25, "volume": 34058894, "typical_volume": 36245110.25, "trend": 5.87708, "fair_value": 5.590893, "relative_strength": -11.504149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.252075, "energy": 47.20546, "activity_lines": [ 5.137333, 5.132492, 5.396232, 5.627232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.24, "volume": 34980924, "typical_volume": 35317156.4, "trend": 5.85408, "fair_value": 5.580399, "relative_strength": -15.423753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.46437, "energy": 40.726588, "activity_lines": [ 5.169333, 5.14602, 5.359078, 5.58613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }