{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36fd312c-ef23-45a4-bd43-acdd6e342d5c", "symbol": "QQQT-B", "name": "Evolve NASDAQ Technology Index Fund CAD Unhedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.829, "architecture_energy": 30.575, "architecture_maturity": 72.229, "architecture_confidence": 92.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.41, "rotation_up": 30.11, "upward_expansion": 60.81, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 22.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.348, 54.999106, 54.106577, 51.564793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.459999, "trend_reference": 48.448321, "distance_from_trend": 0.165365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.638044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.63, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.031819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.374747, "excess_performance": 0.254326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.63, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.100318, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.374747, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.311198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1313, "relative_activity": 0.605809, "balance": 1.311198, "dry_up": 0.807899, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046477, "annualized_volatility": 0.312259, "from_high_reference": -0.031046, "from_low_reference": 0.507637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.448321, "fair_value_reference": 34.638044, "structural_low": 38.830002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054758, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.247257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", 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34.403295, "relative_strength": 3.133398, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.900905, "energy": 29.065443, "activity_lines": [ 53.726667, 54.808933, 53.575922, 51.022677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.459999, "volume": 1313, "typical_volume": 2167.35, "trend": 48.448321, "fair_value": 34.638044, "relative_strength": 10.031819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.828529, "energy": 30.575496, "activity_lines": [ 54.348, 54.999106, 54.106577, 51.564793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }