{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36fdcdad-ca2a-42ef-aff7-548d86a87551", "symbol": "603699", "name": "Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.095, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.886, "architecture_energy": 54.958, "architecture_maturity": 8.386, "architecture_confidence": 65.286, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 13.29, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 43.66, "rotation_down": 65.42, "downward_expansion": 82.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.297334, 47.261907, 51.023763, 52.336338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.25, "trend_reference": 53.855923, "distance_from_trend": -0.029819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.329423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.781487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.443727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.09316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.781487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.591696, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064437, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48240383, "relative_activity": 1.625602, "balance": 1.343237, "dry_up": 1.757803, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10783, "annualized_volatility": 0.633441, "from_high_reference": -0.20561, "from_low_reference": 0.817142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.855923, "fair_value_reference": 29.329423, "structural_low": 38.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02236, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.003064, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.157464, "worst_return": -0.087301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099372, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.090029, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.242268, "worst_return": -0.057337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.217573, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.22267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260677, "worst_return": -0.081919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -3.992735, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.339055, "energy": 57.024126, "activity_lines": [ 49.79007, 52.56171, 54.456243, 54.780361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.330002, "volume": 74976967, "typical_volume": 29369520.7, "trend": 54.308923, "fair_value": 28.696848, "relative_strength": -14.627331, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.656915, "energy": 82.478111, "activity_lines": [ 46.004372, 49.68004, 52.975825, 53.792775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.810001, "volume": 43773356, "typical_volume": 29465625.25, "trend": 54.059256, "fair_value": 28.8837, "relative_strength": -10.798471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.76531, "energy": 82.595282, "activity_lines": [ 43.815334, 47.659927, 51.810979, 52.986393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.580002, "volume": 41663243, "typical_volume": 29294217.6, "trend": 53.84659, "fair_value": 29.084049, "relative_strength": -3.772019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.935934, "energy": 78.608146, "activity_lines": [ 43.846668, 46.725899, 51.06561, 52.439344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.25, "volume": 48240383, "typical_volume": 29675387.3, "trend": 53.855923, "fair_value": 29.329423, "relative_strength": 6.443727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.88559, "energy": 54.958425, "activity_lines": [ 46.297334, 47.261907, 51.023763, 52.336338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }