{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37019597-ca46-4cd8-9020-86fd731133f7", "symbol": "00934", "name": "CTBC TIP Customized Taiwan Growth and High Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.573, "architecture_energy": 36.888, "architecture_maturity": 67.47, "architecture_confidence": 77.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.58, "rotation_up": 39.47, "upward_expansion": 62.48, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.419212, 27.499439, 26.750736, 25.572077 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.200001, "trend_reference": 24.119702, "distance_from_trend": 0.169169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.579321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.517817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.657549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.287178, "excess_performance": -0.092134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.517817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091112, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12905571, "relative_activity": 0.780116, "balance": 1.088022, "dry_up": 0.884949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057532, "annualized_volatility": 0.296543, "from_high_reference": -0.03076, "from_low_reference": 0.607625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.119702, "fair_value_reference": 18.579321, "structural_low": 19.884129, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.068842, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09975, "worst_return": 0.037934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.318584, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318584, "worst_return": 0.318584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.154772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"energy": 48.177268, "activity_lines": [ 27.273268, 27.370549, 25.976083, 24.808454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.450001, "volume": 9698775, "typical_volume": 16619317.15, "trend": 23.614769, "fair_value": 18.452198, "relative_strength": -6.663542, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.543816, "energy": 43.455834, "activity_lines": [ 27.241541, 27.436223, 26.253939, 25.072674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.01, "volume": 15294440, "typical_volume": 16608533.05, "trend": 23.854485, "fair_value": 18.512043, "relative_strength": -6.66497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.672716, "energy": 32.47073, "activity_lines": [ 27.127219, 27.369984, 26.459914, 25.291721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 12905571, "typical_volume": 16543139.8, "trend": 24.119702, "fair_value": 18.579321, "relative_strength": -4.657549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.572958, "energy": 36.887586, "activity_lines": [ 27.419212, 27.499439, 26.750736, 25.572077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }