{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3703bc8c-b5ff-4073-bc30-ef4d9599a1ba", "symbol": "000027", "name": "Shenzhen Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.806, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.303, "architecture_energy": 33.76, "architecture_maturity": 23.467, "architecture_confidence": 72.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.19, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 8.43, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 47.59, "downward_expansion": 70.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.341333, 6.371368, 6.620214, 6.730795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.35, "trend_reference": 6.826049, "distance_from_trend": -0.06974, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.485484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.588449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066176, "excess_performance": -0.073576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06974, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.271575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114740496, "relative_activity": 0.541585, "balance": 2.271575, "dry_up": 0.699277, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085082, "annualized_volatility": 0.426291, "from_high_reference": -0.251179, "from_low_reference": 0.078098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.826049, "fair_value_reference": 6.485484, "structural_low": 5.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004522, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004812, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.270718, "worst_return": -0.103286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049488, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000397, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208103, "worst_return": -0.161423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08871, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.027799, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202922, "worst_return": -0.232791, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 225975230.0, "trend": 6.837383, "fair_value": 6.486696, "relative_strength": -7.349605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.703899, "energy": 67.348663, "activity_lines": [ 6.230667, 6.466839, 6.699133, 6.784286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.49, "volume": 127928802, "typical_volume": 217590585.25, "trend": 6.831716, "fair_value": 6.48617, "relative_strength": -3.183845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.480097, "energy": 46.129635, "activity_lines": [ 6.312, 6.425891, 6.664507, 6.761874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.35, "volume": 114740496, "typical_volume": 211860551.9, "trend": 6.826049, "fair_value": 6.485484, "relative_strength": -9.588449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.303194, "energy": 33.759901, "activity_lines": [ 6.341333, 6.371368, 6.620214, 6.730795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }