{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3706a825-b40f-405c-995a-6fb774b0f954", "symbol": "K71U", "name": "Keppel REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.778, "architecture_energy": 16.05, "architecture_maturity": 91.361, "architecture_confidence": 81.686, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.6, "rotation_up": 35.92, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 40.92, "rotation_down": 26.11, "downward_expansion": 58.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.877702, 0.869584, 0.871383, 0.882385 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.89, "trend_reference": 0.902775, "distance_from_trend": -0.014151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.838024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.748332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06434, "excess_performance": -0.219175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101001800, "relative_activity": 1.347642, "balance": 0.688861, "dry_up": 1.230299, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031955, "annualized_volatility": 0.156373, "from_high_reference": -0.168302, "from_low_reference": 0.071329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.902775, "fair_value_reference": 0.838024, "structural_low": 0.830744, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.005973, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.08176, "worst_return": -0.093264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054348, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020135, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189481, "worst_return": -0.148639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06005, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013341, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.171561, "worst_return": -0.102369, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 0.836292, "relative_strength": -23.259406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.875541, "energy": 44.662084, "activity_lines": [ 0.855385, 0.858689, 0.868986, 0.884296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8939, "volume": 106583400, "typical_volume": 74295041.4, "trend": 0.905641, "fair_value": 0.837157, "relative_strength": -19.89826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.590471, "energy": 18.726345, "activity_lines": [ 0.86799, 0.864663, 0.870332, 0.883394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.89, "volume": 101001800, "typical_volume": 74947046.4, "trend": 0.902775, "fair_value": 0.838024, "relative_strength": -20.748332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.777759, "energy": 16.050127, "activity_lines": [ 0.877702, 0.869584, 0.871383, 0.882385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }