{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37103148-c34f-43d6-8f96-e69755be88c6", "symbol": "AR", "name": "Antero Resources Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.704, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.588, "architecture_energy": 21.938, "architecture_maturity": 31.31, "architecture_confidence": 86.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.14, "rotation_up": 24.69, "upward_expansion": 13.92, "deceleration": 42.8, "rotation_down": 34.73, "downward_expansion": 63.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.954667, 34.753273, 35.414571, 36.228903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.71, "trend_reference": 36.602333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0517, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.314744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.080925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009892, "excess_performance": -0.115733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009892, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21093212, "relative_activity": 0.887594, "balance": 0.886366, "dry_up": 0.972095, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067892, "annualized_volatility": 0.342204, "from_high_reference": -0.241311, "from_low_reference": 0.192784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.602333, "fair_value_reference": 32.314744, "structural_low": 32.58, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006171, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020943, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.260643, "worst_return": -0.154212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025602, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010904, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.270362, "worst_return": -0.167376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047546, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.039495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.485787, "worst_return": -0.203901, "sufficient": true }, { 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36.466667, "fair_value": 32.031923, "relative_strength": -8.508767, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.815708, "energy": 39.835648, "activity_lines": [ 34.830667, 35.354545, 36.726429, 36.825204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.23, "volume": 23142804, "typical_volume": 25692488.4, "trend": 36.401333, "fair_value": 32.100128, "relative_strength": -14.775786, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.039663, "energy": 47.404931, "activity_lines": [ 34.296667, 34.855818, 36.305476, 36.616387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.57, "volume": 21674958, "typical_volume": 25487417.15, "trend": 36.386333, "fair_value": 32.159936, "relative_strength": -12.116922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.176539, "energy": 39.356735, "activity_lines": [ 34.031333, 34.521818, 35.927905, 36.43372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.28, "volume": 22421603, "typical_volume": 24846938.8, "trend": 36.427, "fair_value": 32.215064, "relative_strength": -6.960287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.908255, "energy": 35.765838, "activity_lines": [ 34.42, 34.541818, 35.728619, 36.362344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.14, "volume": 27215576, "typical_volume": 24443696.1, "trend": 36.491333, "fair_value": 32.270321, "relative_strength": -5.499909, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.161698, "energy": 26.010261, "activity_lines": [ 34.958, 34.772, 35.628143, 36.343828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.71, "volume": 21093212, "typical_volume": 23764474.55, "trend": 36.602333, "fair_value": 32.314744, "relative_strength": -12.080925, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.587662, "energy": 21.937692, "activity_lines": [ 34.954667, 34.753273, 35.414571, 36.228903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }