{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37144b81-6559-43d2-a574-e365e745817e", "symbol": "KLR", "name": "Kaili Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.372, "architecture_energy": 27.671, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.609, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.08, "rotation_up": 42.16, "upward_expansion": 24.07, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 58.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.087667, 0.082727, 0.084171, 0.092669 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.083, "trend_reference": 0.107583, "distance_from_trend": -0.228505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.063795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.510238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.427586, "excess_performance": -0.491292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228505, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.545102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.427586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.118802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35598, "relative_activity": 0.173484, "balance": 1.118802, "dry_up": 1.541598, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148285, "annualized_volatility": 0.703811, "from_high_reference": -0.973899, "from_low_reference": 12.833333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.107583, "fair_value_reference": 0.063795, "structural_low": 0.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.051843, "positive_rate": 0.115385, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.026959, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 109.833333, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.230769, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.286578, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 29.833333, "worst_return": -0.413333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.384615, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.358656, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 22.125, "worst_return": -0.652632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-02-18", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-03-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.73913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 7.472222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.087667, 0.082727, 0.084171, 0.092669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }