{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3717a7b9-92ce-4984-8885-3623999c73bc", "symbol": "ELISA", "name": "Elisa Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.872, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.067, "architecture_energy": 23.481, "architecture_maturity": 77.257, "architecture_confidence": 73.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 23.45, "downward_expansion": 57.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.398666, 36.005454, 36.28194, 37.341827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.799999, "trend_reference": 38.868043, "distance_from_trend": -0.053207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.933888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.628048, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126519, "excess_performance": -0.250095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043751, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126519, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858995, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3707395, "relative_activity": 3.625768, "balance": 0.858995, "dry_up": 2.568207, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033127, "annualized_volatility": 0.159744, "from_high_reference": -0.174789, "from_low_reference": 0.082731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.868043, "fair_value_reference": 39.933888, "structural_low": 34.220001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.000443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009165, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.148028, "worst_return": -0.100706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051307, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.014865, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.128586, "worst_return": -0.090026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083401, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.057922, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.218282, "worst_return": -0.089162, "sufficient": true }, { 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37.894631 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 35.459999, "volume": 2690634, "typical_volume": 900387.8, "trend": 39.214843, "fair_value": 39.973609, "relative_strength": -17.954589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.994705, "energy": 40.79818, "activity_lines": [ 35.768, 35.507061, 36.429415, 37.64071 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 36.82, "volume": 2214981, "typical_volume": 918210.6, "trend": 39.037833, "fair_value": 39.953983, "relative_strength": -15.129813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.924799, "energy": 28.100448, "activity_lines": [ 36.142666, 35.777533, 36.345344, 37.486204 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 36.799999, "volume": 3707395, "typical_volume": 1022513.1, "trend": 38.868043, "fair_value": 39.933888, "relative_strength": -14.628048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.066965, "energy": 23.480979, "activity_lines": [ 36.398666, 36.005454, 36.28194, 37.341827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }