{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3721aed6-0ddc-4141-878c-99bc5d41093d", "symbol": "EMEE", "name": "iShares Em Mkt Eq Enhanc Actv U", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.349, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.416, "architecture_energy": 25.377, "architecture_maturity": 65.945, "architecture_confidence": 80.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.09, "rotation_up": 18.45, "upward_expansion": 52.94, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.55, "downward_expansion": 18.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.154067, 7.281345, 7.244338, 7.049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.212, "trend_reference": 6.792167, "distance_from_trend": 0.061811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.61537, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.132884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155029, "excess_performance": -0.015863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155029, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295577, "relative_activity": 0.875125, "balance": 0.836796, "dry_up": 0.937766, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044605, "annualized_volatility": 0.230263, "from_high_reference": -0.078692, "from_low_reference": 0.387991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.792167, "fair_value_reference": 5.61537, "structural_low": 5.898, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007916, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117093, "worst_return": 0.0445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.287861, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287861, "worst_return": 0.287861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.156, "volume": 194936, "typical_volume": 340972.85, "trend": 6.715633, "fair_value": 5.584388, "relative_strength": 1.975537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.985303, "energy": 25.719931, "activity_lines": [ 7.265733, 7.374291, 7.215748, 6.997561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.055, "volume": 368899, "typical_volume": 349176.6, "trend": 6.754067, "fair_value": 5.599242, "relative_strength": -0.286471, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.914661, "energy": 25.069973, "activity_lines": [ 7.167467, 7.312182, 7.224671, 7.019456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.212, "volume": 295577, "typical_volume": 337753.85, "trend": 6.792167, "fair_value": 5.61537, "relative_strength": -1.132884, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.415564, "energy": 25.37674, "activity_lines": [ 7.154067, 7.281345, 7.244338, 7.049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }