{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3721c97b-6fc9-4bd7-9c53-70ffd471fa71", "symbol": "000422", "name": "Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.922, "architecture_energy": 48.613, "architecture_maturity": 33.248, "architecture_confidence": 94.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 24.32, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 48.08, "rotation_down": 49.57, "downward_expansion": 78.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.045333, 13.169049, 13.719299, 14.399555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.2, "trend_reference": 15.111201, "distance_from_trend": -0.126476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.476841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.465104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20434, "excess_performance": -0.21174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031682, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05796, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113609000, "relative_activity": 0.733892, "balance": 0.677136, "dry_up": 0.830301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077076, "annualized_volatility": 0.513918, "from_high_reference": -0.346535, "from_low_reference": 0.060241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.111201, "fair_value_reference": 12.476841, "structural_low": 12.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001059, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.34, "worst_return": -0.186489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05829, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.009321, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.3722, "worst_return": -0.189543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113481, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030383, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.397031, "worst_return": -0.233313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.870367, "energy": 51.262703, "activity_lines": [ 13.233333, 13.359391, 14.22191, 14.811702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.86, "volume": 172348985, "typical_volume": 190671811.25, "trend": 15.194868, "fair_value": 12.457567, "relative_strength": -13.343251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.952685, "energy": 48.435051, "activity_lines": [ 13.088, 13.225685, 14.008071, 14.658248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.13, "volume": 120648858, "typical_volume": 168724637.75, "trend": 15.144868, "fair_value": 12.468455, "relative_strength": -9.768014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.734436, "energy": 49.190465, "activity_lines": [ 13.050667, 13.182123, 13.845471, 14.525031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 113609000, "typical_volume": 154803350.4, "trend": 15.111201, "fair_value": 12.476841, "relative_strength": -13.465104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.922156, "energy": 48.613155, "activity_lines": [ 13.045333, 13.169049, 13.719299, 14.399555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }