{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3724671f-dccd-447a-a3bd-377e29084c5c", "symbol": "XAIX", "name": "Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence and Big Data ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.24, "architecture_energy": 24.59, "architecture_maturity": 71.419, "architecture_confidence": 90.646, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.63, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 55.83, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 19.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.91148, 54.403636, 53.770712, 51.373167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.113, "trend_reference": 48.414046, "distance_from_trend": 0.159023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.361741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.683275, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.319524, "excess_performance": 0.132071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159023, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086833, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.319524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80934, "relative_activity": 0.614412, "balance": 0.95646, "dry_up": 0.949814, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065511, "annualized_volatility": 0.308889, "from_high_reference": -0.080007, "from_low_reference": 0.496389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.414046, "fair_value_reference": 39.361741, "structural_low": 38.26591, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046102, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"fair_value": 39.361741, "relative_strength": 8.683275, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.239676, "energy": 24.589579, "activity_lines": [ 53.91148, 54.403636, 53.770712, 51.373167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }