{ "ticker": { "uuid": "372498f4-4e59-41c7-81ba-d75c2d1686c6", "symbol": "CTRI", "name": "Centuri Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.408, "architecture_energy": 59.357, "architecture_maturity": 18.574, "architecture_confidence": 92.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.46, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 60.55, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.312667, 27.231636, 29.09781, 29.736839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.85, "trend_reference": 30.082333, "distance_from_trend": -0.207176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.009091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.426776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.175596, "excess_performance": -0.301221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.510124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.444938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20578372, "relative_activity": 2.753957, "balance": 0.545781, "dry_up": 1.464278, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140117, "annualized_volatility": 0.480565, "from_high_reference": -0.445155, "from_low_reference": 0.252626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.082333, "fair_value_reference": 23.009091, "structural_low": 21.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105342, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 25.67, "volume": 7014655, "typical_volume": 7198062.6, "trend": 29.989667, "fair_value": 22.880684, "relative_strength": -11.862678, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.776553, "energy": 43.009549, "activity_lines": [ 27.983333, 29.068545, 30.637714, 30.590925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.7, "volume": 7793891, "typical_volume": 6870158.4, "trend": 30.042, "fair_value": 22.921525, "relative_strength": -3.584448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.500006, "energy": 42.131595, "activity_lines": [ 27.628, 28.642545, 30.324286, 30.443204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.67, "volume": 6640923, "typical_volume": 6705543.75, "trend": 30.099667, "fair_value": 22.961429, "relative_strength": -3.287522, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.361857, "energy": 46.376233, "activity_lines": [ 27.439333, 28.335273, 30.023714, 30.290172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.84, "volume": 8752868, "typical_volume": 6842870.0, "trend": 30.167, "fair_value": 23.002083, "relative_strength": -3.894105, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.734275, "energy": 48.134098, "activity_lines": [ 27.447333, 28.124727, 29.747286, 30.144387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.85, "volume": 20578372, "typical_volume": 7472292.1, "trend": 30.082333, "fair_value": 23.009091, "relative_strength": -20.426776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.407941, "energy": 59.35731, "activity_lines": [ 26.312667, 27.231636, 29.09781, 29.736839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }