{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37260e9b-e0fc-46f7-b921-1615a99ed3fa", "symbol": "VSR", "name": "Voltaic Strategic Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.836, "architecture_energy": 75.896, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.961, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.25, "rotation_up": 13.1, "upward_expansion": 16.47, "deceleration": 40.54, "rotation_down": 77.15, "downward_expansion": 94.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0262, 0.028236, 0.034119, 0.037054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.041133, "distance_from_trend": -0.39222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.282451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.509804, "excess_performance": -0.57351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.39222, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.564766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.699978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.509804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058297, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470180, "relative_activity": 0.390313, "balance": 1.058297, "dry_up": 1.073843, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224615, "annualized_volatility": 0.652443, "from_high_reference": -0.615385, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.041133, "fair_value_reference": 0.02383, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.032654, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.518519, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.10856, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.564103, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.15512, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 0.044667, "fair_value": 0.024131, "relative_strength": -22.25401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.090226, "energy": 82.935962, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.036018, 0.0391, 0.041497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 1827291, "typical_volume": 1367409.0, "trend": 0.044, "fair_value": 0.024054, "relative_strength": -27.945656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.506505, "energy": 83.910347, "activity_lines": [ 0.029133, 0.033618, 0.037762, 0.040357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 2222820, "typical_volume": 1412946.9, "trend": 0.0431, "fair_value": 0.02401, "relative_strength": -28.07029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.719473, "energy": 80.949733, "activity_lines": [ 0.028067, 0.031509, 0.036538, 0.03926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 654011, "typical_volume": 1356460.2, "trend": 0.0421, "fair_value": 0.023933, "relative_strength": -32.595156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.240104, "energy": 76.927285, "activity_lines": [ 0.027133, 0.029709, 0.035333, 0.038157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 470180, "typical_volume": 1204622.9, "trend": 0.041133, "fair_value": 0.02383, "relative_strength": -37.282451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.836013, "energy": 75.896431, "activity_lines": [ 0.0262, 0.028236, 0.034119, 0.037054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }