{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3733dba5-ea56-4ccd-9b43-a146122159f6", "symbol": "UBIS", "name": "Ubisoft Entertainment SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.738, "architecture_energy": 24.628, "architecture_maturity": 36.686, "architecture_confidence": 67.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.36, "rotation_up": 36.69, "upward_expansion": 69.65, "deceleration": 89.43, "rotation_down": 27.61, "downward_expansion": 9.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.4256, 5.404618, 5.278086, 5.046622 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.336, "trend_reference": 4.846733, "distance_from_trend": 0.100948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.719237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.611057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.045288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.33567, "excess_performance": 0.161423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.611057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.33567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.037342, "balance": 1.131856, "dry_up": 2.345659, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122809, "annualized_volatility": 0.626695, "from_high_reference": -0.478397, "from_low_reference": 0.430947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.846733, "fair_value_reference": 13.719237, "structural_low": 3.729, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017987, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026338, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.012126, "worst_return": -0.057162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10098, "worst_return": -0.209734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.102487, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.102487, "worst_return": -0.102487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-30.45084, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.674565, "energy": 59.133402, "activity_lines": [ 5.5392, 5.402345, 5.152833, 4.961985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.794, "volume": 15025, "typical_volume": 5969.9, "trend": 4.8898, "fair_value": 14.015442, "relative_strength": -38.406197, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.826075, "energy": 31.818746, "activity_lines": [ 5.311733, 5.302291, 5.148219, 4.952492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.886, "volume": 3986, "typical_volume": 5380.85, "trend": 4.8732, "fair_value": 13.867532, "relative_strength": -23.047862, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.391265, "energy": 41.032772, "activity_lines": [ 5.483067, 5.4082, 5.243695, 5.016763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.336, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 5355.85, "trend": 4.846733, "fair_value": 13.719237, "relative_strength": -31.045288, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.738335, "energy": 24.628207, "activity_lines": [ 5.4256, 5.404618, 5.278086, 5.046622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }