{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37340074-d925-4792-ac15-52adbb15ad00", "symbol": "4310", "name": "Knowledge Economic City Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.4, "architecture_energy": 95.679, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.876, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 86.24, "upward_expansion": 97.65, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.05, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.704667, 13.726727, 12.873048, 12.536387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.73, "trend_reference": 12.273667, "distance_from_trend": 0.281606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.698718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.790679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.249404, "excess_performance": 0.281234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.281606, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.297907, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.364591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.249404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.570941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3303624, "relative_activity": 1.751137, "balance": 4.570941, "dry_up": 3.019349, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055993, "annualized_volatility": 0.383645, "from_high_reference": -0.021766, "from_low_reference": 0.426111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.273667, "fair_value_reference": 13.698718, "structural_low": 11.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.075843, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055014, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.06383, "worst_return": -0.141333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121651, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.058053, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.07967, "worst_return": -0.24026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.178068, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026099, "worst_return": -0.216165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045611, 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"2026-06-19", "close": 11.72, "volume": 522770, "typical_volume": 785896.45, "trend": 11.893333, "fair_value": 13.779167, "relative_strength": -4.868529, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.253235, "energy": 17.312224, "activity_lines": [ 11.684, 11.699091, 11.687762, 11.78757 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.43, "volume": 4288710, "typical_volume": 922964.15, "trend": 11.904, "fair_value": 13.762436, "relative_strength": 2.70529, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.603466, "energy": 22.111501, "activity_lines": [ 11.918, 11.828727, 11.748619, 11.822194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.53, "volume": 1050297, "typical_volume": 926289.4, "trend": 11.921, "fair_value": 13.746603, "relative_strength": 4.550286, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.991768, "energy": 44.889223, "activity_lines": [ 12.15, 11.967455, 11.819762, 11.862581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.56, "volume": 1246868, "typical_volume": 945566.0, "trend": 11.937333, "fair_value": 13.730705, "relative_strength": 5.101204, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.024444, "energy": 52.649906, "activity_lines": [ 12.35, 12.094364, 11.895381, 11.903806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.01, "volume": 743200, "typical_volume": 953276.3, "trend": 11.937333, "fair_value": 13.705128, "relative_strength": 1.456483, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.416808, "energy": 48.959909, "activity_lines": [ 12.297333, 12.107455, 11.917857, 11.908495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.18, "volume": 14687666, "typical_volume": 1637901.25, "trend": 12.042667, "fair_value": 13.701667, "relative_strength": 26.830406, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.712536, "energy": 86.654296, "activity_lines": [ 13.274, 12.689455, 12.243524, 12.117699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 4050238, "typical_volume": 1751095.55, "trend": 12.147667, "fair_value": 13.694936, "relative_strength": 26.825312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.874856, "energy": 92.084128, "activity_lines": [ 13.943333, 13.164909, 12.530333, 12.305269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.73, "volume": 3303624, "typical_volume": 1886559.85, "trend": 12.273667, "fair_value": 13.698718, "relative_strength": 29.790679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.399799, "energy": 95.678679, "activity_lines": [ 14.704667, 13.726727, 12.873048, 12.536387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }