{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37363da6-dfe7-41ec-8c16-0db3efa3ed19", "symbol": "AQI", "name": "Alicanto Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.355, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.914, "architecture_energy": 53.518, "architecture_maturity": 24.788, "architecture_confidence": 78.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.15, "rotation_up": 15.43, "upward_expansion": 10.11, "deceleration": 42.56, "rotation_down": 58.42, "downward_expansion": 81.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.243333, 1.297636, 1.405976, 1.490452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 1.619333, "distance_from_trend": -0.18485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.648692, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.034863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.507685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234783, "excess_performance": -0.298488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081671, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.034863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015077, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.141326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 515521, "relative_activity": 0.723161, "balance": 1.141326, "dry_up": 0.490385, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177156, "annualized_volatility": 0.885707, "from_high_reference": -0.454545, "from_low_reference": 3.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.619333, "fair_value_reference": 0.648692, "structural_low": 1.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.041051, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04558, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.52, "worst_return": -0.268041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.128553, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.418919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05475, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.608696, "worst_return": -0.356522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.425, "active": false }, { 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3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.845954, "energy": 56.216808, "activity_lines": [ 1.383333, 1.451091, 1.519595, 1.599516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.37, "volume": 97356, "typical_volume": 843344.4, "trend": 1.673833, "fair_value": 0.635583, "relative_strength": 15.471813, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.962895, "energy": 52.390233, "activity_lines": [ 1.378333, 1.429091, 1.497833, 1.58028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 425343, "typical_volume": 770078.05, "trend": 1.664167, "fair_value": 0.639429, "relative_strength": -4.027018, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.794076, "energy": 54.892412, "activity_lines": [ 1.302667, 1.367182, 1.459452, 1.546484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.115, "volume": 360106, "typical_volume": 738119.5, "trend": 1.639333, "fair_value": 0.643051, "relative_strength": -10.200211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.358427, "energy": 65.563331, "activity_lines": [ 1.234667, 1.309818, 1.421929, 1.511054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 515521, "typical_volume": 712871.7, "trend": 1.619333, "fair_value": 0.648692, "relative_strength": 1.507685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.9139, "energy": 53.518433, "activity_lines": [ 1.243333, 1.297636, 1.405976, 1.490452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }