{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37457e90-3c7f-4a52-bd6a-a2d331152b43", "symbol": "6560", "name": "Appro Photoelectron Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.891, "architecture_energy": 79.315, "architecture_maturity": 50.153, "architecture_confidence": 77.027, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.47, "rotation_up": 9.13, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 80.66, "downward_expansion": 96.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.233334, 34.072727, 35.912619, 37.036774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.700001, "trend_reference": 38.513333, "distance_from_trend": -0.176908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.275171, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.201211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212422, "excess_performance": -0.653794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.442012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.61175, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114476, "relative_activity": 0.244305, "balance": 2.61175, "dry_up": 0.426998, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096942, "annualized_volatility": 0.321843, "from_high_reference": -0.372277, "from_low_reference": 0.074576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.513333, "fair_value_reference": 35.275171, "structural_low": 29.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.018398, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.020033, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.315425, "worst_return": -0.142287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041131, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.029735, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.412186, "worst_return": -0.25343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049619, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179212, "worst_return": -0.314972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", 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-71.388757, "energy": 66.156934, "activity_lines": [ 35.436666, 36.731818, 37.588333, 38.430537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.0, "volume": 313848, "typical_volume": 500561.05, "trend": 39.17, "fair_value": 35.250662, "relative_strength": -41.772071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.155994, "energy": 76.64621, "activity_lines": [ 33.896666, 35.737272, 36.992619, 37.944301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.25, "volume": 77000, "typical_volume": 474817.4, "trend": 38.846667, "fair_value": 35.26406, "relative_strength": -42.098516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.608171, "energy": 78.385733, "activity_lines": [ 32.89, 34.898182, 36.459285, 37.497849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.700001, "volume": 114476, "typical_volume": 468578.75, "trend": 38.513333, "fair_value": 35.275171, "relative_strength": -44.201211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.890898, "energy": 79.31538, "activity_lines": [ 32.233334, 34.072727, 35.912619, 37.036774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }