{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3751b4ec-8b53-4c9d-a6f5-19d123604fa8",
    "symbol": "ESGE",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Selection UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.774,
    "architecture_energy": 60.176,
    "architecture_maturity": 71.585,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.395,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.24,
        "rotation_up": 46.62,
        "upward_expansion": 75.27,
        "deceleration": 72.09,
        "rotation_down": 29.18,
        "downward_expansion": 15.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.492666,
        42.44289,
        41.657428,
        40.86955
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 42.884998,
    "trend_reference": 40.0333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.071233,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.721549,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235112,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.282961,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.098826,
    "excess_performance": 0.045515,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071233,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045969,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.235112,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060754,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04283,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020841,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098826,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.278597,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 47658,
      "relative_activity": 0.870884,
      "balance": 2.278597,
      "dry_up": 0.680473,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018599,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158613,
      "from_high_reference": -0.009813,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247273
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.0333,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.721549,
      "structural_low": 35.214001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": 0.007395,
        "positive_rate": 0.527778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.527778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0006,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.082337,
        "worst_return": -0.078502,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.02595,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004113,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.105145,
        "worst_return": -0.044946,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.021263,
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        "worst_return": -0.124056,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.058312,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 58036.15,
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        "relative_strength": 9.010169,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 34.394306,
        "relative_strength": 9.047303,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 36512,
        "typical_volume": 57842.0,
        "trend": 39.579533,
        "fair_value": 34.474466,
        "relative_strength": 8.0193,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.938282,
        "energy": 83.902434,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.9959,
          40.338761
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.215,
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        "typical_volume": 55184.1,
        "trend": 39.735966,
        "fair_value": 34.552261,
        "relative_strength": 7.288508,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 71.438708,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.508791
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.334999,
        "volume": 38426,
        "typical_volume": 54755.6,
        "trend": 39.892266,
        "fair_value": 34.635466,
        "relative_strength": 5.633373,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.248173,
        "energy": 55.940937,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.367666,
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          41.419333,
          40.676471
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.884998,
        "volume": 47658,
        "typical_volume": 54723.7,
        "trend": 40.0333,
        "fair_value": 34.721549,
        "relative_strength": 4.282961,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.774177,
        "energy": 60.176057,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}