{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3752e63f-5c9d-450e-9b07-806ce12fba31",
    "symbol": "NCF",
    "name": "Northcliff Resources Ltd.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 64.208,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -53.345,
    "architecture_energy": 34.427,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.55,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.772,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.42,
        "rotation_up": 21.71,
        "upward_expansion": 3.96,
        "deceleration": 49.56,
        "rotation_down": 46.42,
        "downward_expansion": 74.96
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.301667,
        0.301818,
        0.319929,
        0.333774
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.33,
    "trend_reference": 0.3455,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.044863,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.122404,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.695994,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.216108,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.09589,
    "excess_performance": -0.216312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044863,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019675,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.695994,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.099011,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012161,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.441687,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09589,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.67613,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 311700,
      "relative_activity": 0.712555,
      "balance": 0.67613,
      "dry_up": 0.61797,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.134033,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.711148,
      "from_high_reference": -0.5,
      "from_low_reference": 2.666667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.3455,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.122404,
      "structural_low": 0.255,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 24,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.291667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005247,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.222222,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.0625,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.04987,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.2,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.083333,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.131923,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.3,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.166667,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.213146,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.142857,
        "worst_return": -0.2,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.285714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.4,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.6,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.888889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.705882,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.324324,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.44,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.112676,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.129032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.157895,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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          0.34929
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 0.375,
        "volume": 417000,
        "typical_volume": 1176455.0,
        "trend": 0.322167,
        "fair_value": 0.098814,
        "relative_strength": 45.384853,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.781789,
        "energy": 27.227063,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 0.36,
        "volume": 423100,
        "typical_volume": 1171250.0,
        "trend": 0.327667,
        "fair_value": 0.100833,
        "relative_strength": 37.664057,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.606564,
        "energy": 21.707383,
        "activity_lines": [
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          0.355548
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 879100,
        "typical_volume": 1181030.0,
        "trend": 0.333833,
        "fair_value": 0.102981,
        "relative_strength": 37.810868,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 33.625064,
        "energy": 15.129117,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 982300,
        "typical_volume": 1096145.0,
        "trend": 0.338833,
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        "relative_strength": 21.826817,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 373900,
        "typical_volume": 983260.0,
        "trend": 0.3425,
        "fair_value": 0.106699,
        "relative_strength": 5.583628,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.055889,
        "energy": 21.874436,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 885535.0,
        "trend": 0.339667,
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        "relative_strength": 9.832877,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.361333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 22800,
        "typical_volume": 701155.0,
        "trend": 0.339667,
        "fair_value": 0.112019,
        "relative_strength": 3.950445,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.468716,
        "energy": 52.358384,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.309333,
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          0.350215
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.32,
        "volume": 223900,
        "typical_volume": 662605.0,
        "trend": 0.340333,
        "fair_value": 0.113878,
        "relative_strength": 7.006006,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.024695,
        "energy": 43.299966,
        "activity_lines": [
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          0.348946
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 0.3,
        "volume": 764100,
        "typical_volume": 662615.0,
        "trend": 0.342167,
        "fair_value": 0.115609,
        "relative_strength": -0.923885,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.319831,
        "energy": 37.6019,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.308667,
          0.317,
          0.339548,
          0.346344
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.27,
        "volume": 244400,
        "typical_volume": 598525.0,
        "trend": 0.342833,
        "fair_value": 0.117147,
        "relative_strength": -11.591413,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.794443,
        "energy": 57.850851,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.295333,
          0.306182,
          0.33119,
          0.341688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.285,
        "volume": 366700,
        "typical_volume": 494100.0,
        "trend": 0.344167,
        "fair_value": 0.118782,
        "relative_strength": -7.972276,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.0848,
        "energy": 52.617692,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.29,
          0.3,
          0.325095,
          0.337957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.295,
        "volume": 158500,
        "typical_volume": 479245.0,
        "trend": 0.345667,
        "fair_value": 0.120481,
        "relative_strength": -5.442426,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.344144,
        "energy": 51.046297,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.289667,
          0.297,
          0.320619,
          0.334785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.33,
        "volume": 311700,
        "typical_volume": 437440.0,
        "trend": 0.3455,
        "fair_value": 0.122404,
        "relative_strength": 1.216108,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.345109,
        "energy": 34.427425,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.301667,
          0.301818,
          0.319929,
          0.333774
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}