{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37636e65-8f1a-4e85-8378-2dde149d0cdc", "symbol": "GPI", "name": "GPI S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.781, "architecture_energy": 59.162, "architecture_maturity": 48.966, "architecture_confidence": 90.326, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 10.57, "deceleration": 55.0, "rotation_down": 53.79, "downward_expansion": 81.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.80559, 13.900512, 14.432691, 14.936778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.98, "trend_reference": 15.551323, "distance_from_trend": -0.101041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.098233, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155541, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.323298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142331, "excess_performance": -0.313223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121821, "relative_activity": 1.020715, "balance": 1.644589, "dry_up": 1.219261, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04175, "annualized_volatility": 0.206754, "from_high_reference": -0.251606, "from_low_reference": 0.058608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.551323, "fair_value_reference": 12.098233, "structural_low": 13.206027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.011584, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.028443, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.144578, "worst_return": -0.122845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076236, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.736146, "worst_return": -0.242157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.233524, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069793, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.630013, "worst_return": -0.327777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.341146, 14.713817, 15.370502, 15.701185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.067288, "volume": 25264, "typical_volume": 169921.2, "trend": 15.938528, "fair_value": 11.965936, "relative_strength": -26.583739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.560667, "energy": 87.556984, "activity_lines": [ 14.175005, 14.529896, 15.203346, 15.574282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.143846, "volume": 54806, "typical_volume": 149032.2, "trend": 15.85999, "fair_value": 11.992454, "relative_strength": -25.697305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.674046, "energy": 82.543655, "activity_lines": [ 14.128565, 14.401944, 15.052399, 15.458496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.34, "volume": 213132, "typical_volume": 144172.65, "trend": 15.760656, "fair_value": 12.015203, "relative_strength": -28.592968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.335546, "energy": 88.060854, "activity_lines": [ 13.860586, 14.163404, 14.837829, 15.295916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.64, "volume": 151460, "typical_volume": 137995.25, "trend": 15.674656, "fair_value": 12.03976, "relative_strength": -26.419259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.195415, "energy": 80.886947, "activity_lines": [ 13.752607, 14.015046, 14.670973, 15.1591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.86, "volume": 95656, "typical_volume": 121459.75, "trend": 15.611323, "fair_value": 12.069766, "relative_strength": -25.298917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.351083, "energy": 60.837036, "activity_lines": [ 13.748999, 13.938324, 14.539832, 15.042025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.98, "volume": 121821, "typical_volume": 119348.7, "trend": 15.551323, "fair_value": 12.098233, "relative_strength": -26.323298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.780616, "energy": 59.161617, "activity_lines": [ 13.80559, 13.900512, 14.432691, 14.936778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }