{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3764943e-2ef3-46de-8eae-eb750c26fed5", "symbol": "BRNL", "name": "Bharat Road Network Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.565, "architecture_energy": 53.899, "architecture_maturity": 19.066, "architecture_confidence": 92.163, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 10.13, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 64.11, "downward_expansion": 85.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.784, 18.057637, 18.851381, 19.113419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.790001, "trend_reference": 19.513667, "distance_from_trend": -0.088331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.98641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.519013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.366364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127085, "excess_performance": -0.083376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.519013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172377, "relative_activity": 1.045698, "balance": 0.487987, "dry_up": 0.89326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074372, "annualized_volatility": 0.294938, "from_high_reference": -0.328679, "from_low_reference": 0.067827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.513667, "fair_value_reference": 36.98641, "structural_low": 16.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.014104, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.002083, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.302583, "worst_return": -0.190995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026468, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.599653, "worst_return": -0.367569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055987, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.508108, "worst_return": -0.538742, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 238742.1, "trend": 19.893333, "fair_value": 37.25718, "relative_strength": -13.458557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.572778, "energy": 64.888548, "activity_lines": [ 18.158001, 18.643091, 19.305286, 19.493914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.059999, "volume": 128043, "typical_volume": 229919.35, "trend": 19.759, "fair_value": 37.176154, "relative_strength": -9.440808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.486318, "energy": 57.906911, "activity_lines": [ 18.065334, 18.454546, 19.178333, 19.375634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.51, "volume": 143920, "typical_volume": 197817.95, "trend": 19.605333, "fair_value": 37.08391, "relative_strength": -14.184407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.334209, "energy": 57.576752, "activity_lines": [ 17.836667, 18.205818, 19.000619, 19.230538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.790001, "volume": 172377, "typical_volume": 164844.0, "trend": 19.513667, "fair_value": 36.98641, "relative_strength": -13.366364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.564868, "energy": 53.899451, "activity_lines": [ 17.784, 18.057637, 18.851381, 19.113419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }