{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37692671-1c3b-48b6-bcbd-1b2e3585c163", "symbol": "HLX", "name": "Helyx Industries S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.781, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.804, "architecture_energy": 9.262, "architecture_maturity": 18.912, "architecture_confidence": 47.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.23, "rotation_up": 17.45, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 69.07, "rotation_down": 46.11, "downward_expansion": 33.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.707733, 0.7212, 0.711686, 0.706237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.704, "trend_reference": 0.712267, "distance_from_trend": -0.011606, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.035923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320413, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.912438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073684, "excess_performance": -0.244576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167623, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82000, "relative_activity": 0.66343, "balance": 1.508371, "dry_up": 0.734223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09528, "annualized_volatility": 0.653027, "from_high_reference": -0.497143, "from_low_reference": 0.257143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.712267, "fair_value_reference": 1.035923, "structural_low": 0.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.080128, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.070066, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.101333, "worst_return": -0.115764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.066094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024155, "worst_return": -0.156342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.19578, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.043478, "worst_return": -0.348083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.283703, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.45434, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.019324, "worst_return": -0.548083, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079646, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.469649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002849, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.85, "volume": 47000, "typical_volume": 140550.0, "trend": 2.0291, "fair_value": 2.33467, "relative_strength": 3.890816, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.81264, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.359692, "energy": 64.254398, "activity_lines": [ 1.798333, 1.889818, 1.934762, 1.981624 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 1.69, "volume": 52000, "typical_volume": 117900.0, "trend": 2.059167, "fair_value": 2.314, "relative_strength": -8.571252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.168435, "energy": 61.974279, "activity_lines": [ 1.754667, 1.839182, 1.909929, 1.955129 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 1.72, "volume": 68000, "typical_volume": 119750.0, "trend": 2.021333, "fair_value": 2.308649, "relative_strength": -5.839672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.369338, "energy": 55.770503, "activity_lines": [ 1.733667, 1.802182, 1.889667, 1.933247 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 1.7, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 114450.0, "trend": 1.998667, "fair_value": 2.303214, "relative_strength": -5.82753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.568465, "energy": 71.690451, "activity_lines": [ 1.714667, 1.769182, 1.868643, 1.912516 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.54, "volume": 105000, "typical_volume": 117650.0, "trend": 1.966167, "fair_value": 2.29646, "relative_strength": -13.275076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.961492, "energy": 81.919967, "activity_lines": [ 1.650333, 1.716, 1.833857, 1.882925 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.58, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 118300.0, "trend": 1.9375, "fair_value": 2.290175, "relative_strength": -12.479694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.685569, "energy": 80.454474, "activity_lines": [ 1.619333, 1.680273, 1.804762, 1.858011 ] }, { "date": 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"energy": 11.39701, "activity_lines": [ 0.737067, 0.739927, 0.705752, 0.709437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.702, "volume": 58000, "typical_volume": 144850.0, "trend": 0.721867, "fair_value": 1.060667, "relative_strength": -24.136119, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.104007, "energy": 9.24661, "activity_lines": [ 0.722, 0.737091, 0.706552, 0.707957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.726, "volume": 78000, "typical_volume": 140850.0, "trend": 0.7194, "fair_value": 1.051859, "relative_strength": -21.050873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.078965, "energy": 10.451254, "activity_lines": [ 0.718533, 0.736473, 0.709943, 0.708224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7, "volume": 145000, "typical_volume": 130250.0, "trend": 0.7154, "fair_value": 1.043462, "relative_strength": -23.820196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.029285, "energy": 10.27763, "activity_lines": [ 0.7104, 0.728945, 0.710914, 0.706972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.704, "volume": 82000, "typical_volume": 123600.0, "trend": 0.712267, "fair_value": 1.035923, "relative_strength": -24.912438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.80439, "energy": 9.261728, "activity_lines": [ 0.707733, 0.7212, 0.711686, 0.706237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }