{ "ticker": { "uuid": "376ab088-bf28-403f-95c0-19d90debdf91", "symbol": "EMSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.622, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.629, "architecture_energy": 23.705, "architecture_maturity": 63.389, "architecture_confidence": 74.329, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.71, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 56.85, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 32.84, "downward_expansion": 18.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.709335, 69.47782, 69.078382, 67.768797 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 69.830002, "trend_reference": 66.198334, "distance_from_trend": 0.05486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.43109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.816266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10142, "excess_performance": -0.069472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10142, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18259, "relative_activity": 1.046709, "balance": 0.428787, "dry_up": 3.115004, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041915, "annualized_volatility": 0.210578, "from_high_reference": -0.043687, "from_low_reference": 0.261608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.198334, "fair_value_reference": 54.43109, "structural_low": 59.09, "invalidation": "A 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01681, "active": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.201156, "energy": 60.798127, "activity_lines": [ 71.402669, 70.585093, 68.536049, 67.053743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.470001, "volume": 104075, "typical_volume": 13194.45, "trend": 65.396667, "fair_value": 54.066571, "relative_strength": -4.983396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.990254, "energy": 39.48503, "activity_lines": [ 70.142002, 70.13582, 68.62543, 67.205033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.220001, "volume": 39551, "typical_volume": 14683.25, "trend": 65.697001, "fair_value": 54.178558, "relative_strength": -3.718481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.46022, "energy": 26.790574, "activity_lines": [ 69.290668, 69.857456, 68.773478, 67.387184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.720001, "volume": 55470, "typical_volume": 17053.1, "trend": 65.938001, "fair_value": 54.294487, "relative_strength": -5.004663, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.957454, "energy": 21.765129, "activity_lines": [ 68.566001, 69.472547, 68.840858, 67.5177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.830002, "volume": 18259, "typical_volume": 17444.2, "trend": 66.198334, "fair_value": 54.43109, "relative_strength": -4.816266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.629127, "energy": 23.704618, "activity_lines": [ 68.709335, 69.47782, 69.078382, 67.768797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }