{ "ticker": { "uuid": "376f13f2-c097-40c3-ad52-9599721fec63", "symbol": "N400", "name": "Invesco JPX-Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.931, "architecture_energy": 46.239, "architecture_maturity": 83.143, "architecture_confidence": 53.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.34, "rotation_up": 45.12, "upward_expansion": 72.97, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 28.17, "downward_expansion": 10.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 248.018, 247.493273, 243.908381, 239.898237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 255.380005, "trend_reference": 234.950334, "distance_from_trend": 0.086953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.789359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.220605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123537, "excess_performance": -0.047355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.282643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 947, "relative_activity": 0.331821, "balance": 3.282643, "dry_up": 0.706827, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026802, "annualized_volatility": 0.186028, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.307562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 234.950334, "fair_value_reference": 192.789359, "structural_low": 212.910004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.003256, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.001804, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.062159, "worst_return": -0.102849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004919, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.025305, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.154578, "worst_return": -0.080752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047515, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.175725, "worst_return": -0.107837, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.979996, "volume": 2983, "typical_volume": 3131.4, "trend": 233.760001, "fair_value": 192.153205, "relative_strength": -2.825461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.672546, "energy": 31.813626, "activity_lines": [ 244.949998, 245.634181, 242.187667, 238.503398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 255.380005, "volume": 947, "typical_volume": 2853.95, "trend": 234.950334, "fair_value": 192.789359, "relative_strength": -1.220605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.931004, "energy": 46.23939, "activity_lines": [ 248.018, 247.493273, 243.908381, 239.898237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }