{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "376f4a31-988c-4dcd-8dd3-e8e442e9da3b",
    "symbol": "BALM4",
    "name": "Baumer S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 54.695,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -72.989,
    "architecture_energy": 87.839,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.816,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.139,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 9.03,
        "rotation_up": 9.82,
        "upward_expansion": 21.63,
        "deceleration": 37.15,
        "rotation_down": 82.13,
        "downward_expansion": 99.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.124,
        16.522546,
        17.438447,
        17.870397
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 16.0,
    "trend_reference": 18.237724,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.122698,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.946656,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461634,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.2327,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.1074,
    "excess_performance": -0.050352,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.122698,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016193,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.461634,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.421812,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082327,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1227,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1074,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.504274,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 700,
      "relative_activity": 0.302376,
      "balance": 1.504274,
      "dry_up": 0.431965,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04625,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.28178,
      "from_high_reference": -0.234403,
      "from_low_reference": 0.333808
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.237724,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.946656,
      "structural_low": 16.0,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.001001,
        "positive_rate": 0.533333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020475,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.209514,
        "worst_return": -0.142245,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.00368,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002701,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.134021,
        "worst_return": -0.108461,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.005494,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048743,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.123712,
        "worst_return": -0.061072,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.029507,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02955,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.806798,
        "worst_return": -0.215599,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.07245,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.056701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053659,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.21016,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "return": -0.079754,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.154827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.421608,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.038399,
        "active": false
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        "return": -0.103848,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "return": -0.015385,
        "active": true
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        "trend": 17.415125,
        "fair_value": 9.845026,
        "relative_strength": -1.063069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.987119,
        "energy": 21.089244,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.902262,
          19.028734,
          18.755594,
          18.167077
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 18.970001,
        "volume": 3400,
        "typical_volume": 10220.0,
        "trend": 17.492389,
        "fair_value": 9.923888,
        "relative_strength": 3.377484,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.444104,
        "energy": 18.907245,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.86392,
          19.01758,
          18.817863,
          18.267391
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 18.84,
        "volume": 900,
        "typical_volume": 4130.0,
        "trend": 17.602658,
        "fair_value": 10.002945,
        "relative_strength": 4.037291,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.946406,
        "energy": 15.704543,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.826338,
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          18.854642,
          18.354334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 18.200001,
        "volume": 3900,
        "typical_volume": 4020.0,
        "trend": 17.656484,
        "fair_value": 10.080533,
        "relative_strength": 4.001837,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.500744,
        "energy": 14.067727,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.597509,
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          18.817349,
          18.392872
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 20.0,
        "volume": 6600,
        "typical_volume": 3995.0,
        "trend": 17.78062,
        "fair_value": 10.169659,
        "relative_strength": 14.442779,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.848565,
        "energy": 26.224443,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.044297,
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          18.949217,
          18.544067
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 20.049999,
        "volume": 1600,
        "typical_volume": 3670.0,
        "trend": 17.947106,
        "fair_value": 10.259352,
        "relative_strength": 15.727279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.298115,
        "energy": 31.726385,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.433333,
          19.18789,
          19.071403,
          18.690478
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 18.9,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 3500.0,
        "trend": 18.054359,
        "fair_value": 10.340193,
        "relative_strength": 11.766608,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.22816,
        "energy": 27.118519,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.329333,
          19.142705,
          19.074585,
          18.751955
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 18.200001,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 3220.0,
        "trend": 18.15054,
        "fair_value": 10.414942,
        "relative_strength": 5.922541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.543988,
        "energy": 15.438728,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.996667,
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          19.004998,
          18.761351
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 17.459999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2865.0,
        "trend": 18.261623,
        "fair_value": 10.486634,
        "relative_strength": 2.866676,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -6.510937,
        "energy": 10.294977,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.46,
          18.707502,
          18.861526,
          18.7168
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 2755.0,
        "trend": 18.313624,
        "fair_value": 10.556529,
        "relative_strength": -2.734718,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.236947,
        "energy": 44.805034,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.819333,
          18.381899,
          18.685133,
          18.635405
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 16.950001,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 2570.0,
        "trend": 18.363122,
        "fair_value": 10.624664,
        "relative_strength": -3.750222,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -43.278031,
        "energy": 64.351744,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.362,
          18.081455,
          18.508383,
          18.54743
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 16.99,
        "volume": 9200,
        "typical_volume": 2855.0,
        "trend": 18.388876,
        "fair_value": 10.693055,
        "relative_strength": -5.550614,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -42.195062,
        "energy": 69.980152,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.124667,
          17.814727,
          18.341319,
          18.458841
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 16.040001,
        "volume": 900,
        "typical_volume": 2755.0,
        "trend": 18.387385,
        "fair_value": 10.756797,
        "relative_strength": -8.679143,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.557024,
        "energy": 88.739979,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.698,
          17.411273,
          18.089464,
          18.307301
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.25,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 2485.0,
        "trend": 18.338256,
        "fair_value": 10.821884,
        "relative_strength": -7.679421,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.995807,
        "energy": 86.532101,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.485334,
          17.096909,
          17.876217,
          18.169405
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 16.01,
        "volume": 2200,
        "typical_volume": 2545.0,
        "trend": 18.306369,
        "fair_value": 10.884199,
        "relative_strength": -11.006094,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.239651,
        "energy": 88.034328,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.273334,
          16.774364,
          17.651971,
          18.019195
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.0,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 2315.0,
        "trend": 18.237724,
        "fair_value": 10.946656,
        "relative_strength": -8.2327,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.989413,
        "energy": 87.83894,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.124,
          16.522546,
          17.438447,
          17.870397
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}