{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37742074-c2b2-449e-8378-a0376274cbfa", "symbol": "INFL", "name": "Amundi Euro Inflation Expectations 2-10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.058, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.473, "architecture_energy": 55.725, "architecture_maturity": 4.712, "architecture_confidence": 75.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.52, "rotation_up": 64.49, "upward_expansion": 84.2, "deceleration": 47.45, "rotation_down": 12.25, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.659334, 120.369273, 120.249905, 119.941634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 120.370003, "trend_reference": 119.308, "distance_from_trend": 0.008901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 115.962309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03801, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.865744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02854, "excess_performance": -0.024772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.840743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 839, "relative_activity": 0.262964, "balance": 3.840743, "dry_up": 0.593628, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007586, "annualized_volatility": 0.033999, "from_high_reference": -0.011091, "from_low_reference": 0.038747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.308, "fair_value_reference": 115.962309, "structural_low": 116.339996, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.00013, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.021901, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.036677, "worst_return": -0.021221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005613, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.004882, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.064086, "worst_return": -0.018264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004617, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013699, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.085056, "worst_return": -0.00708, "sufficient": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.490837, "energy": 15.079901, "activity_lines": [ 119.753333, 119.908182, 119.931524, 119.480753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.910004, "volume": 1184, "typical_volume": 3182.0, "trend": 118.904, "fair_value": 115.844553, "relative_strength": -0.506493, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.044371, "energy": 29.513893, "activity_lines": [ 120.135334, 120.05891, 120.046762, 119.619635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.949997, "volume": 4875, "typical_volume": 3277.15, "trend": 119.050333, "fair_value": 115.887886, "relative_strength": -0.817381, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.95826, "energy": 44.129339, "activity_lines": [ 120.479999, 120.206, 120.146762, 119.751634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.809998, "volume": 678, "typical_volume": 3246.75, "trend": 119.184667, "fair_value": 115.925771, "relative_strength": -2.371276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.980931, "energy": 55.981352, "activity_lines": [ 120.693999, 120.330363, 120.222714, 119.865161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.370003, "volume": 839, "typical_volume": 3190.55, "trend": 119.308, "fair_value": 115.962309, "relative_strength": -4.865744, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.473005, "energy": 55.724878, "activity_lines": [ 120.659334, 120.369273, 120.249905, 119.941634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }